Sequential Laying

Sequential laying is the process of laying a multiple over a series of games, usually football but it could be any sport.

First of all – is the multiple value? If not, why are we doing it? I can’t think of a reason to sequentially lay a multiple that isn’t value; maybe some weird qualifier would count. To work out if it is value, multiply the lay odds of all your selections together and check this is LESS than the odds offered by the bookmaker.

Do check that:
(1) The times don’t overlap, because we can’t lay one event until we know the result of the previous event, and
(2) Make sure it is good enough value. Just-an-arb isn’t good enough, because drifts could eradicate all value. Go for 110%+

How to squentially lay: imagine we have a four leg accumulator
(1) Lay the first leg to get yor stake back = stake x (1.00 + commission)
(2) If the first leg loses, you’re out for no loss. If the first leg wins, lay the second leg to get your stake back and your lay losses from leg 1 = (stake + losses from leg 1) x (1.00 + commission)
(3) if the second leg loses, you’re out for no loss. If the second legs wins, lay the third leg to get your stake back and your lay losses from legs 1 and 2 = (stake + losses from leg 1 + losses from leg 2) x (1.00 + commission)
(4) if the third leg loses, you’re out for no loss. If the third leg wins, lay the fourth leg to get your stake back and your lay losses from legs 1,2 and 3 = (stake + losses from leg 1 + losses from leg 2 + losses from leg 3) x (1.00 + commission)

This is the purely risk free method. I’m not going to have a problem if you forget about the (1.00 + commission) part of each equation. Sometimes life is too short to worry about such minor details! We have a calculator here to save you the toil.

Example

  • ManUnited and Arsenal double is 6.0. Man United play at 2pm and Arsenal at 8pm. Our exchange commission is 5%.
  • Man United is 1.8 to lay. Arsenal is 2.5 to lay. The true odds are 1.8 x 2.5 = 4.5.
  • As 6.0 is more than 110% greater than 4.5, this is a good bet. We place £100 on the double. To sequentially lay:

(1) Lay Man United at 1.8 to get our stake back. We shall lay (100 x (1+0.05) = £105.

(2) If Man united lose or draw we are net zero. However they have won and we lost £84 on liability on that lay. So we move on to game 2:

(3) Lay Arsenal at 2.5 to get our stake back and the losses from game 1. We shall lay (100 +84) x (1+0.05) =£193.20

(4) If Arsenal lose or draw we are net zero. If Arsenal win we have lost £289.80 on liability on their lay.

They have won so our total losses are now (100 + 84 + 289.80) = £473.80
However we have won £600 at the bookmaker, so our net profit is £126.20, at no risk.