Survivorship Bias

It isn’t always the case that those that are successful are making the right decisions. Over the short and even the medium term it can be down to luck.

The mentalist Derren Brown once predicted he could flip a coin 10 times in a row and have it come up heads every time. He filmed himself flipping coins for nine hours until he got the result he wanted. He then edited out all the failures and presented the single success on TV.

Joseph Buchdahl wrote a good article on this for Pinnacle here.