Calculating more obscure bets

With the bookies offering more and more random price boosts we want to be able to take advantage of value wherever we find it. We have developed what we consider to be the most solid way of assessing value from the resources available to us and detailed them below. If you come across a particular boost hopefully you can find a similar example below. We will work on adding to the list over time.

If you work out a better technique feel free to share it. Our thinking behind the best ways to assess value are presented here.

Theories

Using the Betfair Exchange unless stated otherwise.

Win and over goals

p(team win) – p(1-0) – p(2-0)

The same premise can be used for teams to win and over one goal to be scored;

p(team win) – p(1-0)

We have a calculator available to assist with a quick calculation here. Or simply enter it onto the bet tracker using the Advanced Calcs option – this has the advantage of the EV being tracked over time as the exchange prices change.

Corners Bets

When Poisson isn’t fitting the distibution curve.

This page describes the process we go through to model corner bets accurately.

Lead at 20 minutes

Use Oddschecker best price +10%

p(15 mins) – p(30 mins) + [ p(15 mins) – p(30 mins) / 3]