Warning! Coupon Cuts
Warning: expect cuts at any time on shop coupons.
So you log on to the tracker and see some decent EV. You walk into the shop, fill out the Coupon, hand it over….and at least half the time you’re going to hear there is a cut.
We are betting on the steamers, and at some point traders are going to cut the price. Some weeks that happens immediately. Other weeks they seem asleep. Its a lottery how snippy they will be on every given day.
If someone has recently checked the bets and updated prices then there is a better chance of everything being held; however it can never be guaranteed, and you should always be prepared.
Tactics for shop visits:
1. Was there just one cut? How bad was it? You could consider just keeping it. 6 +EV and 1 -EV team will still result in a very good +EV betslip.
2. Was it two cuts or more? Were they thin or severe cuts? Cutting a couple of teams from 8/11 to 4/6 may take them under the exchange price, but they are still steamers, there may still be value in the price even underneath the exchange price. And again, if the rest of the Coupon is still +EV the slip should be fine.
3. Was it 2 or 3 big cuts? In this case you may want some backup teams. Its always good to know who your backup teams are ahead of time. I will usually scan down the list and look for very short prices; a Celtic at 1.11/1.13 or a PSG at 1.2/1.24 may not be beating the exchange prices, but they are going to win more often than not and will help replace slashed teams on a betslip. If you have these to memory you can do them at the counter in front of the staff member, or even ask them to help you out.
It is worth remembering that not every team has to be >100% for the slip to be good. If the top 2 teams are big, 96-99% matches for the other teams will be fine, as their presence is to serve the EV of the big teams. And 6-7 teams at 99% have still seen their prices shorten via smart money, and may still be a long term strategy.
Be flexible, be aware, know who your backup teams are and be ready for some mental maths as to how severe the cuts are.
Be ready; and remember its all a game. Go read Bringing Down the House. We’re pitting our wits against theirs – and winning.