FAQ's

Common Questions

Yes, your capital is at risk. We are gambling with an edge. Our trackers are in profit in the long run but we experience frequent losing runs.

We do not guarantee winners. We guarantee an edge over the bookmaker and we guarantee +EV bets but we cannot guarantee any return in the same manner as other systems e.g. arbitrage. If you cannot afford to lose your bankroll please do not sign up.

Our results are published on the site and are checked by our members. The results of our horse racing and golf trackers have been independently proofed by the Smart Betting Club – who awarded us 2 Hall of Fame awards after experiencing significant profits with both trackers.

Where we reference £2 each way bet we refer to a £4 overall stake.

We neither specialise online nor in shop – we provide a complete service for value information for all types of betting. Online, in shop, on mobile, anywhere. A lot of shop members have no online accounts; a lot of members who bet online have no access to shops.

Like many of our members you may be restricted at the majority of recreational bookmakers in the UK. For these members we provide value and edges in shops and on exchanges.

We are not a service for new bettors. An element of betting experience (preferably advantage betting) is necessary to get the most of out of bookie bashing.

Navigation

Manage your subscription by going to My Account > Subscriptions

Most are fairly obvious but some can be squirreled away.  Over time you will come to know where to look but these are a few of the favourites…

Each way golf bets at SportingbetGo to golf and then select the thumbnail picture at the top showing the event and place terms.

YourOdds at William Hill online – Go to football > #YourOdds

YourOdds at William Hill shop – 

The Betfred BlogThese bets, when available, will be under football > more > specials.

#whatoddspaddies onlinehttps://www.paddypower.com/football/-whatoddspaddy-football

#whatoddspaddies in shopThese are available on a pre-printed coupons, some usually match online but not always all of them.

The Bashcast is available through Podbean here https://bashcast.podbean.com/

and is also available through Apple podcasts and Spotify

Bookiebashing is designed to be viewed on a desktop computer. The site is crammed with a lot of data and tables that make mobile compatability a challenge. 

We understand members may want to use bookiebashing when out and about. If using a mobile please only use bookiebashing once you have set safari to Desktop View under settings.

Settings > Safari > Request Desktop View > Turn on for all sites.

 

These are a group of separately owned shops who use a shared service to provide their odds.

They include, but aren’t limited to, Jennings Bet, Chisholm Bookmakers, Corbett Sports, Megabet and a bunch of others – some of which are listed here http://www.btc.uk.com/members.html

They will start with the same odds but sometimes cut independently which can make tracking odds a little tricky.

In the Hub, go to results and you’ll find a menu with all the recorded results from the site https://www.bookiebashing.net/hub/results/

Via the Hub you can access the Knowledge Bank to find a raft of information ranging from Tracker and Tools instructions to Bankroll Management and even our favourite Podcasts https://www.bookiebashing.net/hub/knowledge-bank/

Bet Tracker

We always benchmark our odds against a trusted source. That source may be the wisdom of the crowds (the exchange), the spreads, or we may have used a bookmakers own lines. We may draw on our experience to introduce factors such as bias (in markup application, e.g. fav-longshot bias) or inclusivity co-efficients (for bets with components that relate to each other, e.g. Requestabets)

No. Not even the BBteam can see them.

BB = Entered by a member of BB Team using the Bet Builder

BBO = Entered by a member of BB Team using the old Bet Builder

BB Bot = Scraped by a bot, this hasn’t necessarily been verified by a member of BB Team so it is wise to double check the fair odds

No. We calculate xG by monitoring the over 2.5 line and applying an inverse Poisson relationship. This allows us to follow market movements with more precision as we are (1) tracking the exchanges and (2) able to price up to a precision point of 0.001 xG, as opposed to the 0.1-0.2 gap at the Spreads

Not at the moment. The HT/FT is more complicated than other markets – the second half result is completely dependent on the result at half time. Whilst this is partly true with other calcs that are the product of two time periods it is very pronounced in  HTFT. Early attempts at this market did not produce results that were close enough to the closing line to be acceptable. In order to fully develop HTFT we will need to introduce Markov Chains into the Game Centre. This is a significant R&D project that has yet to pass a proof of concept stage (and so may or may not be available in the future).

The fair odds will update in line with price movements at regular intervals unless they are marked with a white S in a red circle to indicate that they are static bets

The fair odds on these entries were accurate at the time of entry but don’t track changes over time so may become stale in a moving market. 

The back prices can be updated by anyone.  Simply double click on them and update.  Once you leave the entry box it will update and recalculate the EV

For match and team touchdowns we use an average of the spread sites.

For players to score a touchdown we use top price with appropriate markup and bias applied.

For players to score rushing / receiving touchdowns we use Pinnacle with with markup and bias applied.

For rushing, receiving and passing yardage we use pff.com for benchmarking. 

Horse Tracker

Confidence, from 1 (most confident) to 4 (least confident). 5 is BBalgo. If it’s red that’s BB Algo, yellow and almost empty is least confident up to green and full being most confident.

The BBAlgo has returned 5.2% ROI since we started recording, from March until May 2022. This is higher than the ROI of bets benchmarked from the exchange. Due to the fact the BBAlgo works from a regression analysis there will be times when the estimate is out. The key factor to consider in betting is that we are accurate significantly more times than we are inaccurate and in the long run betting all BBAlgo horses will be profitable.

Any time value is available. Morning prices are more likely to be significantly higher than SP, whereas late prices are more likely to be shaped by smart money. Both morning and late prices have advantages and disadvantages. We have not seen evidence that one is more profitable than the other.

The power of smart money results in steamers. We have seen evidence with other trackers at bookiebashing.net that betting on steamers on the exchange yields a positive ROI over a large sample size. We are currently monitoring the horse racing tracker to see if the same positive ROI is achievable. For now, we recommend that all bets are placed at bookmakers with matching place terms.

Betfred and Paddy Power will usually match the online prices, William Hill are less consistent, we spend very little time visiting Ladbrokes or Coral.

We place a lot of Lucky 15s on WH SSBTs as it is very easy to see if the live price will match our tracker or not.

We estimate the price of every horse finishing in 1->nth position. We compare this against the place terms and odds available at the bookmaker. We produce an EV rating by dividing the bookmaker probability by the fair odds (for both Win and Place).

EV = (Book Win odds) / (Fair Win odds) + (Book palce odds / Fair place odds) / 2

The Racing Tracker Pro has a different method of collecting the data and is set to be more sensitive to movements on the exchange, potentially highlighting value earlier but also more at risk of picking up on false indicators caused by low levels of liquidity on the exchange.  The Pro data comes from a 3rd party supplier called Odds Hawk  https://www.oddshawk.io/
Additionally, the Pro tracker has a function to allow the adjustment of shop place terms and some other enhancements such as spark lines.  We anticipate a similar ROI for each tracker over the long term,

No. We encourage users to turn off Win Arbs, and we actively seek to find value in markets that do not have any liquidity.

A system that allows you to win indefinitely at the bookmaker does not exist. The sheer act of withdrawing profit from the bookmaker in the long run will lead to restrictions, regardless of our actions. However there are a few things we can do to delay restrictions as long as possible; filtering out Win Arbs, placing multiples and utilising the BBAlgo are all activities that can delay account restrictions.

This depends on your risk tolerance. Betting over 110% would have achieved a 33% ROI over the year. Betting over 100% would have achieved a 5% ROI. Betting over 104% would have achieved a 14% ROI. Including a horse under 100% EV in a Lucky 15 will likely still produce a +EV betslip, and the -EV horse may help delay account restrictions.  Betting at lower levels allows you to get more volume down potentially increasing your profits despite the lower ROI.

Primarily to compound EV. Placing two 103% EV singles in a double results in a 106.09% EV bet. Lucky 15s, Lucky 31s and lucky 63s compound the value we are getting on each horse, and have the potential to return a jackpot payday.

An added bonus is for account preservation, sticking your horses into an ACCA or System Bet will reduce the chance of receiving the dreaded email as multiples are much harder to lay off.You will also find enhancements available on bets such as lucky 15s in certain shops where they will pay out additional amounts if only one horse wins or if they all win.  These enhancements can be big for the EV you achieve.  Have a play around with the System Bets calculator to see the effect.

The tracker isn’t designed for this and we do not recommend it as you will be wasting time and eroding the value by doing so.  We prefer the use of good bankroll management and appropriate staking.

The number of horses you back in each race is personal preference. If you could back all of them at positive EV you could effectively dutch the race resulting in no risk at all so backing too many horses isn’t an issue.

Double check your settings and filters to make sure there is nothing obvious filtering everything out.


If it all looks sensible contact us, we will be able to reset your settings for you.

If you still have the scrolly circle, it is not loading, try turning sparklines off in your settings and filtering EV below 95%.  This will reduce the load and help if you are in a low signal area.

Golf Tracker

The DP World Tour (previously the European Tour) generally tees off in the early hours of Thursday morning, with the PGA events often starting a bit later in the day, although both can vary dependent on where they are held.

Trackers will go live around Tuesday lunchtime or sometimes a bit later if the liquidity in the markets is sparse.

This leaves Tuesday, Wednesday and sometimes Thursday morning as the window to get your bets down.

Tuesday can offer some early value at the risk of being less accurate whilst by Wednesday markets are better formed but some golfers will have been cut already.

Golf selections come down to your personal risk profiling. Choosing one big EV golfer at 500/1 is fine, but you’ll need to wait 2+ years on average to return a profit. Our preference is to cover 10-15% of the field, and aim for a winner every 6-10 tournaments.

In terms of quantity of golfers – it is relative to the magnitude of the odds you’re choosing. Ten golfers at 100/1 offer the same win probability as one golfer at 10/1. There is no real tangible difference between backing all ten at 100/1 or backing one at 10/1 if they are the same EV. 

We prefer to cover 10-15% of the field with a maximum of eight golfers per tournament for logistical reasons (it takes time to back 10+ golfers).

A video on how Tom makes his shortlist of selections is available on the Hub: https://www.bookiebashing.net/hub/knowledge-bank/tools-and-trackers-instructions/golf-tracker-instructions/

The tracker isn’t designed for this and we do not recommend it as you will be wasting time and eroding the value by doing so.  We prefer the use of good bankroll management and appropriate staking.

There is evidence that the tracker highlights golfers that has attracted smart and syndicated money. When this money reaches the markets golfers rise up in EV on the tracker.

BasherTom has bet the majority of his golf bets on the exchange with a significant profit for many years. We monitor exchange ROI and provide a spreadsheet that tracks all exchange bets for information purposes only. We choose to use a Kelly staking system similar to each way betting where we stake larger on golfers who are higher in expected value on the tracker. The strategy for selecting players is the same as the weekly golf options – we try and cover 10-15% of the field with a mixture of good EV and lower odds (to lower variance).

If the option is available then we advise the tracker is primarily used for Each Way betting.

Tom discussed this in some detail during Bashcast episode 191 from the 43 minute mark.

For more information see this blog:

Multi Attribute Decision Analysis in Golf Betting

We aim to publish the graph by 12pm on Tuesday

  1. We take stats from recent, applicable tournaments to create the metrics graph. These stats come from multiple databases from different tours. Occasionally we are unable to come up with any stats for a player. For example – Tiger Woods may have 2 years off golf following a car crash, then plays in a major. What stats shall we use? Is his driving distance from before the crash still applicable? We would argue that it is not. On other occasions the player may have come from nowhere and we cannot find anything on them.
  2. There can be an issue with name mismatches, especially with Korean players where there is no standard definition for First Name / Second Name, and with abbreviated players like JJ Spaun / J.J. Spaun. 
  3. The graph is a limited space, and there is often not room for 150+ players. For this reason we purposefully omit many larger priced players and/or the players who score very low.

Multi million pound trading teams have a big problem when pricing players that have not played for a long time and for players new to the Tour. They also have large, sophisticated systems for dealing with name mismatches – we hear they also struggle with this.

We do our best to manually populate missing players – especially players at the middle and the top of the field. However we have slightly less resource than the trading teams at bookiebashing and so each week we choose to omit a few of these players out of necessity.

No. We encourage users to turn off Win Arbs, and we actively seek to find value in markets that do not have any liquidity.

A system that allows you to win indefinitely at the bookmaker does not exist. The sheer act of withdrawing profit from the bookmaker in the long run will lead to restrictions, regardless of our actions. However there are a few things we can do to delay restrictions as long as possible; filtering out Win Arbs, placing multiples and utilising the BBAlgo are all activities that can delay account restrictions.

This depends on your risk tolerance. Betting over 110% would have achieved a 33% ROI over the year. Betting over 100% would have achieved a 5% ROI. Betting over 104% would have achieved a 14% ROI. Including a horse under 100% EV in a Lucky 15 will likely still produce a +EV betslip, and the -EV horse may help delay account restrictions.  Betting at lower levels allows you to get more volume down potentially increasing your profits despite the lower ROI.

A green full confidence bar means the data is from a liquid exchange.

As liquidity decreases the data confidence is reduced, this is displayed as a smaller bar with the colour changing from green to blue.

When there isn’t enough liquidity at the exchange the bar will be almost empty and yellow.  This indicates that Best Bookmaker Price is being used after adjusting for overround.

Golf selections come down to your personal risk profiling. Choosing 1 big EV golfer at 500/1 is fine, but you’ll need to wait 2+ years on average to return a profit. Our preference is to cover 10-15% of the field, and get a winner every 6-10 tournaments. In terms of quantity of golfers – it is relative to the magnitude of the odds you’re choosing. 10 golfers at 100/1 offer the same win probability as 1 golfer at 10/1. There is no real tangible difference between backing all 10 at 100/1 or backing 1 at 10/1 if they are the same EV. We prefer to cover 10-15% of the field with a maximum of 8 golfers per tournament for logistical reasons (it takes time to back 10+ golfers and some of our followers do not want to see that). A video on how Tom makes his shortlist of selections is available on the Hub.

Shop Coupons

Grab the relevant coupon from your local bookmaker and select the games at the top of the tracker. A favourite tactic of ours is to place the top seven teams into 35 trebles – if you bet £10 per treble this makes your total stake £350. We use seven teams as it gives a nice balance between returns and variance. Shops have different limits on how much you can put down, for example Betfred will often limit you to £300 although if you get on well with the staff this can be higher!

How much should you stake on these coupons? If you have a large bankroll you may find that the only limitation is how much the shop will allow – this can often be £300 for the Pushes and Bonus coupon at Betfred for example. If your bankroll doesn’t cover these sort of stakes we go into some detail here as to how much you should be laying down.

The tracker isn’t designed for this and we do not recommend it as you will be wasting time and eroding the value by doing so.  We prefer the use of good bankroll management and appropriate staking.

No. We actively seek to find value in markets that are not easily layed as these tend to hold their value better.

It is very common that you will arrive at the shop, fill in the coupon and find that there have been cuts made to the prices you are after, it is important to be able to deal with these on the fly – see here for some tactics in how to ensure you maximise the EV in the face of these.

Please see the table at the bottom of this page. It is a rough guide as bookies often change their schedule without notice.  The coupons will usually be collected in the morning and go live at some time on that day.

Betting in Shops

Using shops can be very lucrative, when compared with online offerings….

Prices are often held longer
Restrictions are usually slower
Stakes are generally higher.
Certain bets and coupons are only available in shop
Teams can hit multiple shops in entirely different locations

This will vary from shop to shop and market to market. Some staff call through £25 bets and others dont blink at £500. If you’re new to the shop start small and gain a rapport with the staff and work your way up.

This is personal choice and dependent on where you are but a good rule of thumb is about 1% of any big wins rounded to the nearest £5. Staff are incentivised to report upwards people who collect big payouts but are less incentivised to do so if they know they’re receiving a tip.

Some shops insist on it, others allow a paper slip to be handwritten.

Enter “Virtual double”, the time and horse name for each race along with the boosted price and your stake. E.G. “VIrtual Double, Mr Hooffs (1214) and Dr Gallops (1254) VIRTUAL DOUBLE 18/1 £50

Sometimes, Fred will usually match online but prices can often be held in-shop for longer. WH / Paddy / Ladbrokes / Coral do not match online and that makes them much harder to track.

No. Machines are franchised and operated by a separate company with separate prices (except William Hill, who operate their own machines. Even then, prices often differ between coupons, online and machines).

It depends what is on but timing it for just after team news is often a good plan to catch the steamers.

There is a big section on this in Bashcast Episode 183 from 38:45

Betslips don’t expire, bookmakers will honour them until they are paid. If you lose a betslip go tell the shop immediately, they will cancel the original and issue a lost ticket receipt.

Yes, frequently. You will need to be ready for cuts and have a plan for how you will deal with them – see here.

If there is a coupon available it’s a good idea to use it as there is less room for argument over what the bet is and how much will be paid out. Some bets can only be placed on coupons whereas others are fine to write out.

Yes, although they may need to call it through to verify the bet and if it’s a big win they might not have enough cash ready for you.

Permission to lay. Individuals can be PTL’d to a certain value so if you are PTL’d to £25 that is all the shop is allowed to let you bet.

Yes, and you can collect by card. Card is more convenient and more secure. Cash has the advantage of increased anonymity. However if you’re to face restrictions these will happen whether you pay via cash or card and we’ve never seen evidence that using cards is disadvantageous. Don’t collect on the same card you use with a bookmaker online there is evidence that this could get linked and restrictions placed.

Yes although there may be extra checks involved.

Ask a member of staff, they may not have bothered putting them out. It’s also worth keeping a stash of certain coupons where they don’t change day to day, such as William Hills Great Offers coupon.

Darts

The x180s tool is to be used by any advantage player that wants to explore value in a single match or across a session. The data can be used to

  • Find value on Most 180s at the bookmakers
  • Trade Most 180s on the exchange
  • Find value on alternative markets such as “Player to win and both players to throw over x 180s”
  • Find value in “Player to have the Most 180s in a Session” market.

By clicking on “Details” you can see a subset of markets for each game.

BB don’t model 180s – for 180s we monitor live lines at the spread sites and take an average. For Match Odds the tool monitors the exchange fair odds. The tool monitors the lines and will adjust according as they change.

To model Most 180s in a match or in a Session we use a discrete probability distribution known as a Skellam distribution. This is based on the mean 180s scraped from the Spreads. We then repeat that up to a statistically irrelevant juncture at which point we halt the analyses. We repeat this process iteratively, and factor in the draw using a weighted utility function.

The tool is customisable. The default line is the Midpoint, but you can set it to the buy, sell or any % point in between.

We only put bets on the tracker to monitor the ROI of the tool. Users are encouraged to use the tool to find value themselves.

180s lines are sensitive to weight of money and will get cut. This is why we encourage users to use the tool themselves as opposed to relying on bets from the tracker.

Value can be found at the bookmaker or at the exchange. Searching through the “most 180s in match”, “player to have the most 180s in a session” and “match to have the most 180s in a session” will uncover value. 180s markets often have very little liquidity. Back prices can be traded higher than the Fair odds on the tool, and Lay prices can be traded lower than the Fair odds on.

For Checkout markets we will benchmark against a bookmaker that offers both the “player to checkout over x99.5” and “player to checkout under x99.5” on the assumption offering both sides gets shaped.

Many bookmakers just offer the over and these odds could be terrible. We then work out margin and apply bias as necessary.

Bet Builder

Users can benchmark using: 

  • Betfair Exchange
  • Bookiebashing in house databases
  • Top Price

To set up a private bet using the betbuilder:

1. Set your bet up in the calculator

2. Ensure Show/Hide Save bet is at “Show”

3. Input your bet name, bookmaker, back odds

4. Change Tracker from “Public” to “Private”

5. Save bet

Your bet will appear on the bet tracker under “Private”. Nobody else can see this bet, not even the team at bookiebashing.

Not at the moment. We are working on this functionality.

The handicaps model tracks the fair odds of -999 to +999 in NFL, Rugby Union, Rugby League and other sports. To model handicaps we take live data from the alternative handicap market in the markets. From this we can build up the same points distribution curve that the odds compilers have used in their models. We can then use this points distribution curve to benchmark value in boosts, on the exchange and in the standard markets at bookmakers. Bookmakers can often have stale prices in these markets and value can exist when the market starts to move. 

We will track the handicap line in all Super League, Six Nations, Gallagher Premiership and NFL games. We are also able to model some snooker, darts, MLB and NBA games, where data is available. We will add any games on an ad-hoc basis. To request a game please go to “User Requests” in Support.

To calculate match xG we use the o2.5 price and an inverse poisson distribution.

To calculate xSOT we use the bookmakers o/u price for x.5 SOT and apply an inverse poisson distribution.

To calcualte player xG we use the AGS price and apply an inverse poisson distribution.

The inverse poisson distribution is a relatively complex bit of mathematics.

https://people.maths.ox.ac.uk/gilesm/talks/poisson_2013.pdf

One shortcut to doing it is to work out the “Over 0” odds of a range of xG from 0 to 10 in 0.01 increments. This can then be saved as a library and a vlookup can be used on excel to work out xG from AGS odds. At bookiebashing we needed to bring in the help of a specialist mathematician + coder to develop the logic for the tool

  1. Set up team to have most goals in the 1st half
  2. Click the OR button
  3. Change the second component of the bet to the team to have the most goals in the 2nd half
  4. Enter the odds and save to private or public tracker for live tracking of this price.

The default betbuilder calculation considers

  • 1 Yellow = 1 card
  • 2 Yellows (i.e. a Red) = 2 cards
  • 1 Straight Red = 1 card
  • 1 Yellow and 1 Red = 2 cards

It is possible to toggle this rule to change it for bookmakers that consider 1 Red card to equal 2 cards.

Player xG

We take a fair price for AGS from market conditions and apply an inverse poisson relationship. The fair price will be from the exchange as long as there has been trading there. If there is no trading history on the exchange the fair price will come from best bookmaker price with appropriate markup.

First Goalscorer is calcualted in house by

FGS = Player xG / Match xG.

By calculating FGS in house we are able to exploit the wide range of prices that are often traded when there is bias or inefficiency on the FGS markets.

The Fair Price is taken from logic that will take the exchange price if it is still valid. If the exchange price is not valid then we will take the Best bookie price and we apply the equation below

(Note: Best bookie price is not necessarily “Top Price”. We have been in discussion with industry professionals and we are aware that top price is often higher than the fair odds).

DDHH bets are pushed to the tracker from 1 hour before kick off.

We track the ROI of all bets that are pushed to the tracker and are >100% EV for one second or more.

Team news is not factored in to the Player xG model at the moment. We have explored various API options but they seem to want to charge us £20 per member per month and we cannot afford to eat this, nor do we want to pass it on to members. Manually assigning team lineups isn’t an option with 100+ team lineups at 2pm on a Saturday.

This leaves the player xG tool with a risk of the player not starting. With FGS the risk is minimal – it only comes into play when a player comes on late in the game at 0-0 when the match and player xGs are no longer appropriate. 

Please bet at your own risk, bookiebashing cannot be liable for anyone betting on a player starting on the bench. Please verify any lineups before starting

EV = DDHH Back Odds / (1 – p(FGS)) / [(p(FGS) x (p(Exactly 1)) + ((2 x p(FGS)) x p(2 Given 1) x (p(Not 3 given 2))) + (3 x p(FGS) x p(2 given 1) x p(3 given 2))]

Early Payout Tracker

We undertook a detailed assessment of the value in NFL and determined that it was not worth the time and resource necessary to build this tracker. In the season we studied the 17up triggered only 4 times across the entire season.

The standard trigger rate is set at 1.7% based on analysis of historical games when the offer has “triggered”. Another alternative you can find in the My Settings is to use the 2-2 method. This is a more refined methodology that takes into consideration the fact that the offer is more likely to hit where both teams are expected to be amongst the goals. The trigger rate is automatically adjusted depending on the fair odds of any particular game finishing 2-2.