Last year when we calibrated the corners model with coefficients for clustering etc (see here for more info) we back-tested the model against thousands of games. We also ran it in private whilst we monitored daily markets.

We continue to monitor the model on a regular basis for reality checking. The below presents 3 games from tonight/last night. What does an analysis of 3 games prove? Nothing. Reality checking against the exchange requires a large data set due to the fact trading prices can get skewed.

I just wanted to highlight the fact this work goes on behind the scenes.

At 7am this morning I ran an analysis of fair odds in the Champions League and we settled on the following expectancies. At 7am there was no liquidity on the corners markets on the exchanges to validate these numbers.

The below presents exchange information at Kick Of:

Chelsea vs Bayern – over 10.5 corners

We estimated Fair Odds of 1.93. The last price matched at kick off was 1.86. Back 1.85, Lay 1.86.

Chelsea vs Bayern – over 13.5 corners

We estimated Fair Odds of 4.12. The last price matched at kick off was 4.1. Back 4.1, Lay 4.2

Napoli vs Barcelona- over 10.5 corners

We estimated Fair Odds of 2.92. The last price matched at kick off was 2.88. Back 2.88, Lay 2.94

Napoli vs Barcelona- over 13.5 corners

We estimated Fair Odds of 8.69. The last price matched at kick off was 8.4. Back 8.4, Lay 8.6

Liverpool vs West Ham – over 10.5 corners

We estimated Fair Odds of 1.82. The last price matched at kick off was 1.82. Back 1.8, Lay 1.82