The Greens, the Putting and the Stimpmeter
The US Masters takes place over the 7,745 yards of Azaleas, pimento cheese sandwiches and green jackets at the Augusta National Golf Club. It takes place on the same course every April – and so data on form and historical performance become very relevant to decision making. The 2020 US Masters may be the last golf event of the year as it has been postponed until November due to the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak.
The US Masters is a unique betting opportunity in the annual sporting calendar because of the Field, the Greens and the concessionary places on offer at the bookmakers.
The Field at Augusta
The field is the smallest of all the major championships with 90-100 players. The top 50 players in the Official Golf Ranking are invited, along with players from a further 18 invitation categories.
The Greens at Augusta
The large sloping greens are among the fastest on the planet. There is no objective answer as to how fast the greens are – one of the traditional quirks of the course is that nobody has been permitted access to do an official reading using a Stimpmeter.
A Stimpmeter device is a green speed measurement tool that is slowly raised to an angle of 20 degrees, where a ball is rolled onto the green under gravity at a repeatable velocity of 6 feet per second. The green speed is measured as the number of feet the ball rolls on a flat putting green – “Slow” is 0-6 feet, Medium is 6-8 feet and Fast is above 8 feet. The fastest measured greens in the world can be found at the Oakmont Country Club (where the Stimpmeter was conceived) with readings of 13-15 feet at their quickest.
The number at Augusta National was estimated to peak at 15 feet on the Stimpmeter. This is in combination with some of the most severe, undulating putting slopes on the planet. For these reasons, a team of experts from the USGA Course Rating assigned an unofficial rating of 78.1, meaning a golfer with a handicap of 0 should expect to shoot six over the courses par of 72.
Golfweek surveyed 39 golfers to find out the fears behind the putting prospects of the best players on the planet.
Amen Corner
Holes 11-13 of Augusta form “Amen Corner” – a par 4, par 3 and par 5 that have broken more men than marriages and moonshine. In 2016, Jordan Spieth entered Amen corner with a big lead on the final day. He dropped a shot on the 11th, held a one shot advantage on the 12th, but five minutes and one quadruple bogey later his tournament chances were over. Amen corner attracts a real opportunity for sharp inplay betting.
Recent History
Englishman Danny Willett won the US Masters by an astonishing 3 strokes in 2016 during in an event where his competition could have been argued to have lost the tournament as much as he won it (see Amen corner above). Sergio Garcia beat Justin Rose in a playoff in 2017. Patrick Reed (renowned as one of the worlds best putters) won in 2018. Tiger Woods (20/1 at Betfair, 14/1 at Skybet with 10 places Each Way) won his fifth Green Jacket in an astonishing return to form in 2019.
Betting 5-10 places Each Way
Despite the smaller field, bookmakers often offer a significant number of concessionary terms due to the fact it is the first major tournament of the year. In 2019 Paddy Power, Skybet and Coral paid 10 places Each Way (1/5 odds). With such generous terms, the analytics are made easier; blindly betting any golfers at top price at these bookmakers should be a +EV proposition. Many other bookmakers – including high street shops – were paying 7 and 8 places.
Finding an Edge
To find an edge, the relative One-Putt %, the seasonal Strokes Gained in Putting and the 3-putt avoidance statistics all provide valuable information. Any player at the top of these leaderboards will have form coming in to the Masters, and an edge may be found at a bookmaker who has priced an in-form putter too high. At the time of writing the four top players for “Strokes-Gained in Putting” during a pandemic-affected 2020 are Louis Oosthuizen, Denny McCarthy, Patrick Reed and Jon Rahm.
McCarthy is unlikely to qualify for the US Masters. Jon Rahm is 2nd favourite and Patrick Reed is 7th favourite on the machine. It is statistically relevant to note that Louis Oosthuizen has only recorded 6 rounds to determine his Strokes Gained in Putting. However he has had 3 top 20 finishes – including a 2nd place – in his last six Master’s. The South African has some tangible form with the putter and is available at 100/1 for the 2020 US Masters.