BookieBashing Golf Tracker double – Cantlay and Caldwell – variance study of probability that our balance would rise from £1,000 to £7,281
We have had a second winner from the last 2 weeks from the Golf Options tracker – with Jonathan Caldwell (150/1) beating Otageui (55/1) into 2nd. Both golfers were on the golf options page, and followed up a win from Patrick Cantlay (22/1) the week before.
A video on how to use the golf tracker can be found here.
This week is a good week to get involved with the US Open providing a lot of value on Thursday (see below for more detailed)
BookieBashing Golf Tracker Results 2019-2021
A spreadsheet with the results can be found here
Variance
We started with a bankroll of £1000.
The 1,275 bets have been at an average EV of 141%. ROI is at 38.2%. The bankroll has grown to £7,281.11 in 2.1 years.
Using the Variance calculator – we would expected to have made that return 51.8% of the time.
Exchange Betting
Personally, I do a lot of my golf value betting on the exchange. Whilst I am not benefitting from the Place Value, I am benefiting from the power of smart money that sees prices come down on the exchange, and EV rise on the tracker.
| Number of Bets | Staked | p/l | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1275 | £8,386.26 | £3,745.74 | 44.67% |
Betting each player on the Golf Options page to Win only on the exchange would have returned a profit of £3,745 from £8,386 staked on 1275 golfers – with an ROI of 44.67%. These returns are running higher than expected, in the 96th percentile:
US Open
The US Open 2021 (PGA Tour) takes place on the 17th June 2021. The bookiebashing golf tracker will be available to subscribers from Tuesday 15th June to help narrow down the value betting propositions.
Key metrics at Torrey Pines, San Diego, California
Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation are all key metrics at Torrey Pines Golf Course.
Based on these metrics, we will be keeping an eye on the following highlighted players:
