Bookiebashing horse racing tracker – 1 year results
The bookiebashing horse racing tracker rates the EV of every horse in every UK and Ireland race, every day of the year. The tracker is live and dynamic; ratings change in real time as market information changes. The tracker is based on the principle of estimating the probability of a horse finishing in 1st to nth position, and then comparing that against the bookmaker terms on offer. A variety of data sources are used, including
- Exchange prices
- Top prices at a range of bookmakers
- BBAlgo – a historical review of 1,000,000+ horses and how likely they were to finish in nth position in a race with t runners, based on a band of SP prices.
We started tracking the performance of the horse racing tracker on the 25th August 2020. Therefore the 1 year anniversary of results tracking has recently passed! Smart Betting Club have independently reviewed the tracker, the results are available on the SBC website for SBC members and here for BB members.
Our strategy for results recording is:
- Record all +EV horses at a range of six bookmakers – Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Skybet and Paddy Power. Many more bookmakers are avilalbe on the tracker.
- We take a download of all horses with an EV of 100% or higher twice a day – at 11am and 2pm
- We filter out all Win Arbs – horses whose Win price is higher at the bookmaker than the Win price on the exchange. Betting on these horses cannot be considered to be sustainable
- We include all BBAlgo horses
- We do not consider BOGs. Some bookmakers restrict BOG from the majority of their customers and BOG prices can artificially inflate an ROI. However it should be noted that many members take advantage of BOG in Singles and Multiples.
- We do not consider Rule 4 deductions because of the resource required to determine the Rule 4 price. We have recorded over 27,000 +EV horses over the year, and to consider the Rule 4 deduction would require a review of each horse, the time it was taken, the price it was recorded at, the withdrawn horses, their affect on Rule 4 and the eventual placing of the horse recorded.It is noted that this means we will be slightly overestimating our ROI by not considering Rule 4s but it is felt that this will be more than covered where BOG and other enhancements are available.
1 Year Results
A spreadsheet of the results can be downloaded here
P/L overall (All 6 bookmakers, unique horses only, duplicates removed)
P/L by bookmaker
Profit split by EV bands
The BBAlgo estimates the probability of finishing in nth position based on SP and a historical regression analysis of 1,000,000+ horses. The BBAlgo is primarily used when there is no information to estimate nth position on either the exchange or at the bookmakers.
We released the BBAlgo on 16th March 2021. The BBAlgo has an ROI of +3.71% from when we started measuring until 24th August 2021.
Q) What does C Mean on the tracker?
Confidence, from 1 (most confident) to 4 (least confident). 5 is BBalgo
Q) What is the best time of the day to use the tracker?
Any time value is available. Morning prices are more likely to be significantly higher than SP, whereas late prices are more likely to be shaped by smart money. Both morning and late prices have advantages and disadvantages. We have not seen evidence that one is more profitable than the other.
Q) How reliable is the BBAlgo?
The BBAlgo has returned 3.7% ROI since we started recording, from March until September 2021. This is marginally under the 5.1% ROI of the overall horse racing tracker.
Q) Isn’t this just Arbing?
No. We encourage users to turn off Win Arbs, and we actively seek to find value in markets that do not have any liquidity.
Q) Will my account get restricted?
A system that allows you to win indefinitely at the bookmaker does not exist. The sheer act of withdrawing profit from the bookmaker in the long run will lead to restrictions, regardless of our actions. However there are a few things we can do to delay restrictions as long as possible; filtering out Win Arbs, placing multiples and utilising the BBAlgo are all activities that can delay account restrictions.
Q) Should I bet over 110% EV?
This depends on your risk tolerance. Betting over 110% would have achieved a 33% ROI over the year. Betting over 100% would have achieved a 5% ROI. Betting over 104% would have achieved a 14% ROI. Including a horse under 100% EV in a Lucky 15 will likely still produce a +EV betslip, and the -EV horse may help delay account restrictions. Betting at lower levels allows you to get more volume down potentially increasing your profits despite the lower ROI.
Q) Can I bet on the Exchange?
The power of smart money results in steamers. We have seen evidence with other trackers at bookiebashing.net that betting on steamers on the exchange yields a positive ROI over a large sample size. We are currently monitoring the horse racing tracker to see if the same positive ROI is achievable. For now, we recommend that all bets are placed at bookmakers with matching place terms.
Q) Which shops match online prices?
Betfred and Paddy Power will usually match the online prices, William Hill are less consistent, we spend very little time visiting Ladbrokes or Coral!
Q) How is EV Calculated?
We estimate the price of every horse finishing in 1->nth position. We compare this against the place terms and odds available at the bookmaker. We produce an EV rating by dividing the bookmaker probability by the fair odds (for both Win and Place).
EV = ((Book Win odds / Fair Win odds) + (Book place odds / Fair place odds)) / 2
Q) Why place multiples instead of singles?
Primarily to compound EV. Placing two 103% EV singles in a double results in a 109% EV bet. Lucky 15s, Lucky 31s and lucky 63s compound the value we are getting on each horse, and have the potential to return a jackpot payday.
An added bonus is for account preservation, sticking your horses into an ACCA or System Bet will reduce the chance of receiving the dreaded email as multiples are much harder to lay off.You will also find enhancements available on bets such as lucky 15s in certain shops where they will pay out additional amounts if only one horse wins or if they all win. These enhancements can be big for the EV you achieve. Have a play around with the System Bets calculator to see the effect.