At bookiebashing.net we have a live golf tracker that estimates the EV of every golfer in every PGA and European Tour (now DP World Tour) event.
Since 2019 we have put a selection (typically with a combined 10-15% win probability) of +EV golfers up on a “Weekly Golf Options” so that we can monitor the performance of the tracker. These bets typically go up the day before the tournament starts on a Wednesday lunchtime.
The 3 year ROI of betting the golf options at the bookmaker is 28.4% over 1,632 bets (split 29.7% on PGA and 26.6% on European Tour).
| Year | Tour | Tournaments | Number bets | Winners | Staked (£1k starting) | p/l | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | PGA | 29 | 245 | 8 | £3,253.74 | £2,531.15 | 77.79% |
| 2019 | European Tour | 20 | 163 | 3 | £2,005.53 | £541.83 | 27.02% |
| 2020 | PGA | 38 | 350 | 3 | £4,344.00 | £98.23 | 2.26% |
| 2020 | European Tour | 29 | 232 | 2 | £2,298.00 | £497.20 | 21.64% |
| 2021 | PGA | 48 | 347 | 7 | £5,778.00 | £1,339.58 | 23.18% |
| 2021 | European Tour | 38 | 295 | 6 | £4,124.00 | £1,200.40 | 29.11% |
| All Years | Total | 202 | 1632 | 29 | £21,803.27 | £6,208.39 | 28.47% |
Golf betting is best seen as a long term investment. It is a volatile sport to bet on due to the infrequency of events and we understand that some can question their confidence when betting on golf at times. I hope the 3 year graph below helps manage concerns.
Downswing periods can go on for a long time when the places in events fill up with -EV players, as tended to happen do towards the latter half of this year. It is impossible to win long term without experiencing losing period.
In 2021 we recorded 13 winners and 68 places from 86 tournaments. The 25.7% ROI on the year was just under the long term average.
Some prefer to bet on the exchange, on the assumption that many +EV players appear on the tracker due to the presence syndicated and smart money. Betting the exchange Win only has an ROI of +35.4% over 1,632 bets.
| Our Winners in 2021 | Tournament | Exchange Odds | Advised Stake (£1000 bank( | p/l |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Na | Sony Open in Hawaii 2021 | 70 | £8.00 | £560.00 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | Abu Dhabi Championship 2021 | 16 | £28.00 | £448.00 |
| Billy Horschel | WGC Dell Matchplay 2021 | 130 | £11.00 | £1,430.00 |
| John Catlin | Austrian Open 2021 | 60 | £6.00 | £360.00 |
| Stewart Cink | RBC Heritage 2021 | 250 | £4.00 | £1,000.00 |
| Patrick Cantlay | The Memorial Tournament 2021 | 24 | £17.00 | £408.00 |
| Jonathan Caldwell | Scandinavian Mixed by Henrik & Annika 2021 | 200 | £5.00 | £1,000.00 |
| Collin Morikawa | Open Championship 2021 | 42 | £13.00 | £546.00 |
| Abraham Ancer | WGC – FedEx St. Jude Invitational 2021 | 60 | £8.00 | £480.00 |
| Sung Jae Im | Shriners Hospitals for Children Open 2021 | 38 | £11.00 | £418.00 |
| Rory McIlroy | The CJ Cup 2021 | 24 | £30.00 | £690.00 |
| Lucas Herbert | Butterfield Bermuda Championship 2021 | 70 | £14.00 | £966.00 |
| Daniel van Tonder | South African Open 2021 | 36 | £20.00 | £700.00 |