Live tracking of all Double Delight Hattrick Heaven EV

Double Delight Hattrick Heaven.

Get double the odds if your FGS gets a 2nd, and triple the odds if they get a third. 2/1 becomes 4/1 becomes 6/1.

This is mostly featured at Betfred, although has been seen in various guises at other bookmakers over the years. The qualifying games are here:

This offer used to be nuts, you hardly had to be a genius to profit from it because Betfred traders would push out the value of the main striker to be top price in the market. On the 19th January 2014 he pushed Samuel Eto’o out to 8/1 against Manchester United. Top price anywhere else was 7/1. The exchange was around 7.4. He scored first in the 17th minute and had the hattrick wrapped up in the 49th minute.

I’ll be the first to admit – there wasn’t much clever about that bet, only knowing that (1) it existed, (2) there was a maximum payout of £6000 on the additional funds and (3) we could get the price in shop.

Fast forward to 2022, things are slightly harder but the promotion runs on and on. If you love this concession, we’ve got an automated live tool for identifying the DDHH value of every player in every game.

Whilst we’ve been betting on this for years at bookiebashing it has always been on an informal basis. We have formalised the edge by building an automated tool that returns the EV of all players in all qualifying matches, and it watches the markets and adjusts in real time. Crucially we have separated ourselves away from the FGS market on the exchange for Benchmarking. Instead we price up FGS ourselves.

We can do this with a high degree of confidence because we have a database of Player xG and we have a database of Match xG.

That means we know the fair odds of all first goalscorers in the game (FGS = Player xG/Match xG).

By separating ourselves away from benchmarking against the first Goalscorer price on the exchange we avoid inefficient markets and markets with bias in them. You may have heard the fallacy with some that look at value on DDHH – “I just bet on anyone that is 1.0 odds gap between back and lay prices?”

This method is innacurate. It doesn’t account for illiquid exchanges, bias, inefficient prices,

FGS exchange prices are volatile, so you have no idea what the fair lay price is. Additionally the maths are its not as simple as an arbitrary 1 point gap – short priced strikers are much more likely to get a 2nd goal than defenders.

Our tool calculates the player xG for every player in a game. We then know the odds for AGS, FGS, 2+ and 3+. Through a combination of these probabilities we are able to precisely define the DDHH Neutral Odds – the minimum odds we can back DDHH at for the bet still to be value. We then monitor DDHH EV by EV = Betfred FGS Odds / Bookiebashing DDHH neutral odds. Player xG (and all associated probabilities) will update in real time and it switches data sources autonomously when markets start to move and confidence in data becomes higher.

The tool is live with prices days before a kick off. At 1 hour before kick off we push all players over 80% EV to our bet tracker, and we monitor the ROI of all players over 100% EV. From February 2022 to April 20th we pushed 135 amounted to the tracker (using our own FGS prices and our own DDHH EV prices). 10 13 first goalscorers have hit, of which 2 have been Double delight and Benzema got us a hattrick heaven.

Those 135 DDHH bets have returned +35% ROi in two months. We will continue to monitor the ROI of all +EV DDHH bets identified by the tool from 1 hour before kick off.