#### The Game Centre – exploiting exchange markets

The Exchange is very useful – with all of the power of the Wisdom of Crowds we can estimate Fair Odds in a liquid market. However most secondary markets are illiquid, inefficient and/or biased on the exchange.

The good news is we can exploit these markets on the exchange. All we need is benchmark of exactly what the price should be – and then we can value bet or trade around this.

Successful value betting and trading are two branches of the same olive tree – we seek to back at higher odds (or lay at lower odds) than a “fair” price, and the proof in our methodology will be when the market converges into our price.

Imagine having access to a database that was fully liquid in all markets – with all of the Fair Odds in these secondary markets. We could use it to calculate value at the bookmaker – or even to take advantage of those inefficient markets on the exchange itself.

We build a tool to do exactly this – called the Game Centre.

The Game Centre provides a single “Fair Odds” for all goals markets in a football game. We build a correct score for each game using Match and Team xG from the xG tool and a straight Poisson distribution for each score permutation from 0-0 to 20-20.

We then take this market and factor in bias for 0-0 by directly hinging every correct score option against the fair odds on a liquid correct score or correct score 2 market. The remaining probability is redistributed amongst the market using a weighted utility function so that we always normalise to a sum of 100%. The Game centre is therefore a powerful bespoke hybrid model that both (1) generates markets using in-house xG lines and (2) tracks smart money, and adjusts accordingly.

This way, we can calculate any football-goals market without the need for any liquidity.

### How do we find inefficient, illiquid or biased markets?

In Primary Competitions any secondary goals market will usually be inefficient all the way up to a few hours before kick off.

However – the more biased the market is, the better. Biased markets can exist when there is a lop-sided view of where the fair odds lie. For example, in markets with a “bookmaker boost” there may be more layers than backers in a market. That will make the price artificially high.

A good tip for finding biased markets is to look for bets that have been boosted to a high EV at the bookmaker. The higher the EV, the more potential for bias. At bookiebashing we have a “boosts” tracker. We monitor the EV of a variety of daily boosts. Not many of our members are backing the “maximum £6 stakes” on a betway boost – however knowing this boost is big EV provides us with plenty of opportunity to exploit the exchange.