Shots on Target and Poisson

To work out the fair odds of shots on target bets we use the following methodology:

  • We monitor the under/over lines used by multiple bookmakers in real time and take an average (identifying and addressing any outliers)
  • We apply a margin with no under/over bias to return a 100% market
  • We take the over line and over probability and use a reverse Poisson distribution calculation to identify the xSOT used by the trading teams.
  • We use a live tool to project the xSOT forward to calculate multiple Shots on Target using a normal Poisson distribution 

Advantage players attempt to back the Skybet headline Shots on Target boosts with Kelly staking on the exchange as there can be big EV and big liability. In 2022 a number of Skybet headline Shots on Target bets have lost. 

In this blog we look at a review of:

  1. Is a Poisson distribution a good fit for Shots on Target?
  2. The ROI of recorded shots on target bets at bookiebashing.

Review of historical Mo Salah Shots on Target 17/18  – 22/23

SeasonSOTGamesSalah SOT/gameOdds of 1+ (Based off season SOT/game)Odds of 2+ (Based off season SOT/game)Odds of 3+ (Based off season SOT/game)
22/23 (to 08/09 - 6 games)560.831.774.9219.11

Mo Salah Shots on Target Data

  • Salah shots on target data is available to download here
  • Salah 22/23 analytics are for Premier League games to 08/09/22 (6 games). 
  • Only data from the Premier League is considered. Stats from competitions such as the African Cup of Unders are not comparable.
  • A normal Poisson probability is used to project the Shots per game to probability

ROI of bets on the bookiebashing tracker

  • 1,183 bets from approx. 450 independent events (matches) were analysed from the bookiebashing bet tracker from January 2020 to September 8th 2022. The majority of these are “boosts”. A small number are combobets (such as requestabets) and a small number are exchange value bets. (larger dataset here).
  • All bets with the word “Target” were included in the analysis
  • Some bets had previously been labelled “SOT”. These have retrospectively been changed to “Shots on Target”. Due to this change our dataset may therefore differ from the ROI posted by a member on discord in August 22.
  • Analysis uses Unit Win Staking to win £200
William Hill357£16584.79-£384.89-2.32%
PP + BFSB369£22351.40-£57.44-0.26%
Coral + Ladbrokes22£884.14-£145.25-16.43%
Virgin Bet18£758.03-£478.03-63.06%
> 120%550£36136.00£5101.0014.12%
> 130%362£25284.00£4552.0018.00%
> 140%257£19459.00£5601.0028.78%
> 150%169£13619.00£5402.0039.67%
> 160%103£7500.00£3064.0040.85%
> 170%48£2113.00-£122.00-5.77%

A variance simulator (link here) shows the following distribution of results could be expected from the shots on target data.

All SOT1183£76549.97£521.190.68%
SOT Combos293£15487.69-£423.17-2.73%
SOT Singles890£61062.28£944.361.55%

 Note: In Spring 2022 we suspended the ability to combine shots on target bets due to feedback and pending a review of the underlying mathematics that estimate the affect of inter-dependency in these bets.

Exchange Tracking:

  • We monitored the closing line of 934 bets at betfair exchange, over 136 individual games (note: this is a small sample size. The individual games should each be considered exclusive, but bets within a game are inclusive. Son getting 3+ SOT takes opportunity away from Kane). 
  • We have not considered quantity traded at the price matched.
  • Where the price matched is higher than bookiebashing  fair odds we recommend a Back value bet; where the price matched is lower than bookiebashing fair odds we stipulate a Lay value bet.
  • Staking is Unit Win to win £200 from either the back or the lay. This did result in an unrealistic -£5,200 on Saint Maximin on the 27th December when we recommended a lay of 3+ SOT at 27/39.78. £5,200 would not have been achievable to match on the exchange.
  • Commission of 5% is factored in.
  • Dataset is here.
Number of bets (BFx Exchange)Number of individual gamesStakedp/lROI