All of us at BookieBashing have experience restrictions and difficulties with getting on at online soft bookmakers. Our community was born through shop and exchange value bettors who no longer had the luxury of online soft bookies. Of course – online soft bookies have their advantages. This diagram represents estimated ROI vs Effort:
Of the 24 trackers and tools we have at BookieBashing only 1 is specific to online soft bookmakers – the Early Payout Tracker. Four others are generic calculators, and the remaining 19 trackers and tools are designed for value on the exchanges and in shops. See the table below for a summary:
Our trackers are designed to take bookmaker odds and rank them in terms of Expected Value. The liability at bookmakers can generally withstand our community betting on them.
Unfortuantely the same cannot be said for Exchange liquidity. Were we to highlight Exchange Value Bets with a long term positive ROI then one or two users would sweep up all of the available liquidity, and everyone else would be left annoyed. Exchange liability does not withstand a tracker with bets ranked by expected value.
Instead we provide a suite of tools for “Self Exploration” of value on the exchanges. We can profit on the exchanges in one of two ways:
- Identify existing value with available liquidity
- Market seed (or trade) illiquid markets.
To do either of the above it is necessary to establish the precise “Fair Odds” around which we believe the value to exist. You may hear others refer to “Fair Odds” as “Real Odds” or “True Odds”. These terms allude to a precision in sports ouctome probability that is aspirational at best. Instead we prefer the term “Fair Odds” – the odds where the exchange would converge to to if it was efficient given all of the existing information that exists in the markets.
How do we profit on the exchanges?
By Identifying the fair odds to three decimal places and backing or laying existing prices – or seeding markets.
How do we know the fair odds are accurate?
All of the inputs we use in our models come directly from the markets themselves. For example we take corners by reverse engineering the lines used by pinnacle or the spread sites. For goals markets we monitor the over 2.5 line at the exchanges as well as the bookmakers, and we adjust our lines in real time as the market moves in any direction. Our game centre tool returns the same lines that all of the existing syndicates and market makers use in their models.
See a video below for a summary of the tools we use for exchange betting:
Bookiebashing.net was born in 2014 from a team of professional shop bettors. We had noticed that there were several professional shop teams around, but none were sharing information or edges with each other (sometimes with good reasons – it is necessary to protect some edges that cannot withstand exposure to a wider audience). However a lot of work was being duplicated and this could be improved by pooling resources.
At bookiebashing.net we construct our trackers and tools with shop bettors in mind. This includes:
- A shop specific bet tracker
- A shop specific discord channel where members share daily shop-only content from their visits
- A dedicated shop horse racing tracker, where place terms are edited by our community each morning to mirror the terms available in shop. (Our horse tracker won golf in the 2022 Annual Betting Awards, as nominated by Smart Betting Club members)
- A dedicated golf tracker, with place terms mirroring those available in shops
- A shop football coupons tracker
- SSBT edges
- A private tracker to share bets with runners in your team – these bets do not get seen by a wider audience, and therefore personal edges can be protected
A video looking at some of our shop edges is available below: