There’s been some chatter about the new eight-second goalkeeper rule and whether it could lead to more corners.  If a goalkeeper fails to release the ball within eight seconds, the sanction is a corner (after a referee’s countdown signal).  We’ve already seen one high-profile infringement (Dubravka yesterday – 16th August 2025).

The Rule:

A corner kick is awarded if a goalkeeper, inside their penalty area, controls the ball with their hand(s)/arm(s) for more than eight seconds before releasing it.

A goalkeeper is in control when:
• holding the ball in hands/arms
• the ball is held between any surface
• holding the ball on an outstretched open hand(s)
• bouncing it on the ground
• throwing it in the air

The referee will decide when the goalkeeper has control of the ball and the eight seconds begin and will visually count down the last five seconds with a raised hand.

If during the counting process an attacking player pressures or prevents the goalkeeper releasing the ball, an indirect free-kick against the attacker will be awarded.

A corner kick on the side of the field nearest to the goalkeeper is awarded for the first such offence by a goalkeeper.

A second offence will have a warning from the referee added, while a third will lead to the referee issuing the ‘keeper a yellow card.

Our view:

• We expect, at most, a small uptick in corners. Once goalkeepers adapt, infringements should be rare.
• Our models do not need manual adjustment – our lines will automatically move with market sentiment, so any genuine shift will be captured.
• At present, no meaningful change has been observed in the pricing of corners markets.

Next steps:

We’ll continue monitoring the frequency of eight-second infringements and how the markets react. If it develops into something more material, we’ll update members.  For now, one to keep an eye on.