The York Ebor Festival is always one of the summer flat season highlights, both on the track and in the markets. Ahead of this year’s meeting, we’ve dug into our historical data to see how different staking methodologies and EV thresholds have performed.
Historical Results at 100%+ (604 bets)
- Kelly Staking: +6.81%
- BookieBashing Each Way: +5.51%
- Unit Win: -6.30%
- Unit Loss: -3.98%
Stepping Up the Edge – 105%+ (402 bets)
- Kelly Staking: +11.48%
- BookieBashing Each Way: +8.92%
- Unit Win: +3.51%
- Unit Loss: +4.20%
Pushing Further – 110%+ (246 bets)
- Kelly Staking: +7.27%
- BookieBashing Each Way: +3.67%
- Unit Win: +0.85%
- Unit Loss: +2.97%
(Note: The 110% sample is smaller, which likely explains why it underperformed the 105% group – variance is a major factor here.)
Key Observations
- Staking methodology matters: The same bets produce very different outcomes depending on approach. Kelly and BB Each Way staking consistently outperform flat-unit strategies.
- Increasing the edge improves results: Moving from 100%+ to 105%+ makes a notable difference, turning even flat-unit staking profitable.
- Small sample caveat: The 110% set underperformed 105% in this case, but with only 246 bets that’s likely just variance at play. In larger datasets, higher EV thresholds tend to produce stronger results.
- Festival variance is high: Big-field handicaps and wide-open races mean swings are inevitable – but the underlying maths holds.
Takeaway
The York Ebor Festival is a prime opportunity to find value – but how you stake and what edge you demand are just as important as the selections themselves.
- Stick to value-driven staking (Kelly / BB Each Way).
- Raise EV thresholds to 105%+ where possible.
- Expect swings in the short term – especially at festivals – but remember variance evens out in the long run.
As always, our trackers will be working throughout Ebor week to highlight the value.