Game Centre Instructions
How it works
The Exchange is very useful – with all of the power of the Wisdom of Crowds we can estimate Fair Odds in a liquid market. Unfortunately most secondary markets are illiquid on the exchange.
Imagine having access to a database that was fully liquid in all markets – with all of the Fair Odds in these secondary markets. We could use it to calculate value at the bookmaker – or even to take advantage of those inefficient markets on the exchange itself.
The Game Centre is a tool that will provide exactly that. It is found here
The Game Centre provides a single “Fair Odds” for all goals markets in a football game. We build a correct score for each game using Match and Team xG from the xG tool and a straight Poisson distribution for each score permutation from 0-0 to 20-20.
We then take this market and factor in bias for 0-0 by directly hinging every correct score option against the fair odds on a liquid correct score or correct score 2 market. The remaining probability is redistributed amongst the market using a weighted utility function so that we always normalise to a sum of 100%. The Game centre is therefore a powerful bespoke hybrid model that both (1) generates markets using in-house xG lines and (2) tracks smart money, and adjusts accordingly.
This way, we can calculate any football-goals market without the need for any liquidity.