Player xG
Player xG, FGS & DDHH Model
The input for the model below is a fair price for AGS taken from the LPM on the exchange (with due dilligence on errant trades where possible). This model is a proof of concept. It is currently in a (long) build project behind the scenes to be enabled as a live tool.
xG for each player is calculated using a reverse Poisson relationship. FGS is calculated by dividing the Player xG by the Match xG. DDHH EV is calculated through an assessment of the probability of (1) a player scoring first, (2) scoring first and getting a second and (3) scoring first and getting two more. These probabilities are combined to calculate the DDHH neutral odds.
We track the ROI of +EV DDHH bets. DDHH is a concession at Betfred (it has been available at other bookmakers). If the first goalscorer scores a 2nd we get double the odds, and triple the odds for a third. Qualifying games are here. We try to only put value bets on the tracker AFTER team news. Some prices pre-team news have a risk of not starting factored in. Staking is Unit Win to win £200 for FGS, £400 for DD
have a risk of not starting factored in. Staking is Unit Win to win £200 for FGS, £400 for DD and £600 for HH.
| Time of analysis: 16:30 | Match | Player | xG | AGS Fair Odds | FGS Fair Odds | 2+ Fair Odds | 3+ Fair Odds | Betfred Odds | DDHH Neutral Odds | DDHH EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Karim Benzema | 0.584 | 2.26 | 5.48 | 8.57 | 46.37 | 4 | 4.56 | 87.72% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Riyad Mahrez | 0.427 | 2.88 | 7.49 | 14.51 | 105.79 | 5 | 6.45 | 77.52% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Gabriel Jesus | 0.326 | 3.59 | 9.82 | 23.32 | 220.7 | 6.5 | 8.68 | 74.88% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Vinicius Junior | 0.299 | 3.87 | 10.7 | 27.24 | 280.41 | 6 | 9.53 | 62.96% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Kevin Bruyne | 0.296 | 3.9 | 10.81 | 27.74 | 288.38 | n/a | 9.64 | 0.00% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Raheem Sterling | 0.288 | 4 | 11.11 | 29.15 | 311.24 | 6.5 | 9.93 | 65.46% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Phil Foden | 0.288 | 4 | 11.11 | 29.15 | 311.24 | 7.5 | 9.93 | 75.53% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Marco Asensio | 0.204 | 5.42 | 15.69 | 55 | 822.93 | 8 | 14.41 | 55.52% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Jack Grealish | 0.196 | 5.62 | 16.33 | 59.26 | 922.38 | 11 | 15.04 | 73.14% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Bernardo Silva | 0.181 | 6.04 | 17.68 | 68.81 | 1158.25 | 11 | 16.37 | 67.20% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Rodrygo | 0.17 | 6.4 | 18.82 | 77.45 | 1386.56 | 11 | 17.49 | 62.89% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Luka Modric | 0.101 | 10.41 | 31.68 | 209.66 | 6280.6 | 26 | 30.25 | 85.95% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Toni Kroos | 0.086 | 12.14 | 37.21 | 286.31 | 9999.99 | 26 | 35.76 | 72.71% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Federico Valverde | 0.082 | 12.7 | 39.02 | 314.1 | 9999.99 | 26 | 37.56 | 69.22% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Casemiro | 0.078 | 13.33 | 41.03 | 346.22 | 9999.99 | 41 | 39.57 | 103.61% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Rodri | 0.078 | 13.33 | 41.03 | 346.22 | 9999.99 | 21 | 39.57 | 53.07% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Aymeric Laporte | 0.067 | 15.43 | 47.76 | 465.83 | 9999.99 | 26 | 46.28 | 56.18% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Joao Cancelo | 0.067 | 15.43 | 47.76 | 465.83 | 9999.99 | 34 | 46.28 | 73.47% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Ruben Dias | 0.055 | 18.69 | 58.18 | 685.79 | 9999.99 | 41 | 56.68 | 72.34% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Eder Militao | 0.032 | 31.75 | 100 | 1995.18 | 9999.99 | 67 | 98.46 | 68.05% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Daniel Carvajal | 0.029 | 34.99 | 110.34 | 2424.49 | 9999.99 | 67 | 108.79 | 61.59% |
| 04/05/2022 20:00 | Real Madrid v Man City | Ferland Mendy | 0.025 | 40.5 | 128 | 3253.72 | 9999.99 | 81 | 126.45 | 64.06% |
| 05/05/2022 20:00 | Eintracht Frankfurt v West Ham | Daichi Kamada | 0.208 | 5.33 | n/a | 53.04 | 778.67 | n/a | n/a | 0.00% |
| 05/05/2022 20:00 | Eintracht Frankfurt v West Ham | Craig Dawson | 0.105 | 10.03 | n/a | 194.5 | 5606.52 | n/a | n/a | 0.00% |
| 05/05/2022 20:00 | Eintracht Frankfurt v West Ham | Declan Rice | 0.093 | 11.26 | n/a | 245.97 | 7996.94 | n/a | n/a | 0.00% |
| 05/05/2022 20:00 | Eintracht Frankfurt v West Ham | Kurt Zouma | 0.078 | 13.33 | n/a | 346.22 | 9999.99 | n/a | n/a | 0.00% |
| 05/05/2022 20:00 | Rangers v RB Leipzig | Christopher Nkunku | 0.406 | 3 | n/a | 15.83 | 121.18 | n/a | n/a | 0.00% |
| 05/05/2022 20:00 | Rangers v RB Leipzig | James Tavernier | 0.185 | 5.92 | n/a | 66.04 | 1087.96 | n/a | n/a | 0.00% |
| 05/05/2022 20:00 | Rangers v RB Leipzig | Ryan Kent | 0.113 | 9.36 | n/a | 168.82 | 4524.99 | n/a | n/a | 0.00% |