You would think that virtual sports would be a ridiculous thing to bet on as the Bookies are just making it all up but even here there is an edge to be had!
If we look at the markets that Betfred are offering for this particular double we can assess the value of the bet in a similar way to real live racing. The below were the markets available at Betfred that related to the above offer, you will see that the boost is on the favourite in race 1 and one of the joint favourites in race 2.
Assessing the value
We could just multiply the odds of the two horses together but this wouldn’t take into account the bookmakers over-round or the favourite-longshot bias. This is easily dealt with however, by adding up the percentage chance of each horse winning we can calculate the bookmaker over-round and make the appropriate adjustment.
You can find the racecard by searching for the horse names at Betfred or there are other sites that have them such as this one.
The problem we have here is that we are assuming that Fred is treating his Virtual Horses in the same way as his real life horses but we don’t know for sure how his markups work. Given that the boosts are almost always on the favourites perhaps it would be prudent to calculate the implied lay based on a straight mark-up of the overround, ignoring the favourite-longshot bias in this case.
This gives us the following…
We can see from the above that the fair odds of the two horses we were interested in were 2.72 and 4.91 using the favourite-longshot bias method. Multiplying these together gives us odds for the double coming in of 13.37, as the boost is offering odds of 21 we are more than happy to take this 157% EV bet.
Being more prudent by adjusting the prices using a straight overround gives us an implied lay of 3.01 x 5.49 = 16.52 so we are still happy at 127% EV.
Betting on these can result in long losing runs due to the length of the odds and the size of the edge. On average you can expect to be betting at around 17 against fair odds of around 15.5 so you can expect to win 6.5% of the time and achieve EV of 109% over the long term.
If you look at the variance model in the spreadsheet area you can plug in the average odds and have a look at what the distribution of profits looks like over x bets and y simulations.
Below is a normal distribution betting at average odds 16/1, Average EV 109% over a sample size of 365, equivalent to one double a day for a year.
Below is a normal distribution betting at average odds 16/1, Average EV 109% over a sample size of 1730, equivalent to two doubles a day for 2 years.