The bookiebashing horse racing tracker is a live model that estimates the value of each horse in every race at every bookmaker. We estimate the probability of the horse finishing in 1st to nth position and then compare that against the bookmakers odds.
Over the 1st year Aug 2020 – Aug 2021 we monitored 33,489 horses that we suggested were +EV at 11am and 2pm. (We filter out any Win Arbs where the bookmaker price is higher than the exchange, as these are not sustainable over time.)
- The ROI of level staking each of these bets was 5.46%.
The graphs above show a breakdown of this data.
- Graph 1 shows that betting all horses has an ROI of 5.46%.
- However some odds-bands have higher ROI than others.
- If we apply a filter of only betting on horses over 3/1 we would have yielded an ROI of 6.39%, over 31,707 horses.
- If we apply a filter of only betting on horses over 20/1 we would have yielded an ROI of 18.74%, over 22,732 horses.
- Betting only on horses over 60/1 would have yielded an ROI of -2.58% over 5,174 horses.
Assuming that the odds band 20/1 to 60/1 is the optimal filter, we then look at ROI by bookmaker in Graph 2.
- Betfred has an ROI of 17.15% at 20/1 to 60/1, whereas Paddy power has an ROI of 26.58%.
- Bet365, William Hill, Betfred and Ladbrokes have a negative ROI higher than 60/1 – however Skybet has a whopping 51.63% ROI. Notably this is over a small sample size of 436 horses.
In graphs 3 and 4 we look at each way betting at SP.
- The average odds reduce from 27/1 to 23/1 when betting at SP. However we still returned profit when betting at SP odds over 12/1.
- This profit rose to an ROI of 4.2% when betting at SP odds over 17/1.
Graph 5 shows a breakdown by Country.
- Sample sizes are 25,304 in the UK and 6,087 in Ireland (the remaining data is international racing, with a sample size too small for ROI analysis).
- The ROI of all horses in the UK is 6.2% and all horses in Ireland 2%. Irish horses tend to peform better in the 20/1 to 60/1 range, whereas UK horses tend to perform better in the 10/1 to 20/1 range.
Note – reduced place terms due to NRs are not considered.