Its difficult to overstate how big William Hills 7 places in the Supreme Novices Hurdle looks. Other books are 3, 4 and 5 places. Looking at the race composition we can pretty much discount 5 horses who are over 100 on the exchange. We’re left with 11 contenders, 3 ins single figures. The book is …
Newcastle to score 2+ goals and 6+ corners Q) How can we estimate the above? A) With great difficulty. It is an extremely complex problem. The probability of a team to score goals is not independent from the probability of a team to take corners. In some scenarios, more goals will count negatively towards expected …
Combining components of Requestabets – Team A Goals with Team A Corners Read More »
Last year when we calibrated the corners model with coefficients for clustering etc (see here for more info) we back-tested the model against thousands of games. We also ran it in private whilst we monitored daily markets. We continue to monitor the model on a regular basis for reality checking. The below presents 3 games …
Reality checking the BB Corners model vs Exchange: 2 x Champions League and 1 x EPL game Read More »
Working on a theory that there is value in Shots on Target due to ridiculous amounts of bias in the Overs. To do this I had a look at modelling my own Shots on Target this week based on a combination of historical data and current match AGS/FGS prices, and it initially appears to me …
Over / Under 2.5 goals in the 2019-20 added to the earlier analysis. A loss of £1,024 would have been made betting the favourite to win in the over/under 2.5 market on the EPL this season to 2nd Feb. EPL -£1025 Champ -£2014 League 1 +£1680 League 2 +£1705 Across all four leagues (over 1367 …
UK Football 2019/20 – Favourite Performance on Overs Read More »
Betting each favourite to win £200 at SP in the 2019/20 season The graph below shows the results of betting each favuorite up to 2nd February 2020. This strategy would have resulted in profit in League 1 and League 2. Betting each fav would have resulted in -£2,180 in the EPL and -£2216 in the …
Assume we want to benchmark the fair odds of a market, but there is no liquidity at the exchange. We can estimate the Fair Odds of an event in a Closed (or Complete) market by analysing a bookmakers prices, determining the markup and estimating bias. A complete betting market is a market that contains prices …
Markup-Bias Analysis: Estimating the probabilty of an event from closed markets Read More »
The Corners Problem Corners are not independent. A corner will often lead to another corner. They come in clusters. Poisson can be a useful model, but it is most precise when events that are being counted are independent and do not come in clusters. This means that the observed chance of 0 corners is higher …
We have a model that we use for to calculate equity in PGA and European Tour golf events. Each week we use the processes below to develop a portfolio of value bets for each tournament based on the available back price, places paid and each way terms. In this page we discuss: Results over the …
Calculating Equity in PGA and European Tour Golf Events Read More »
Below we present three methods for estimating over x goals in y games: Method A – using the exchange Daily Goals Market Method B – using over 0.5 to over 7.5 exchange data for each game Method C – using a discrete probability distribution This is followed by a case study using real data …
Three methods for estimating the probability of over x goals in y games Read More »