Month: February 2020

Reality checking the BB Corners model vs Exchange: 2 x Champions League and 1 x EPL game

Toms blog / By

Last year when we calibrated the corners model with coefficients for clustering etc (see here for more info) we back-tested the model against thousands of games. We also ran it in private whilst we monitored daily markets. We continue to monitor the model on a regular basis for reality checking. The below presents 3 games …

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Markup-Bias Analysis: Estimating the probabilty of an event from closed markets

Public Blog / By

Assume we want to benchmark the fair odds of a market, but there is no liquidity at the exchange. We can estimate the Fair Odds of an event in a Closed (or Complete) market by analysing a bookmakers prices, determining the markup and estimating bias. A complete betting market is a market that contains prices …

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