Predicting player 2+ and 3+ goals
In a previous blog we looked at the application of a Poisson probability distribution to predicting Shots on Target in a game: https://www.bookiebashing.net/2022/09/08/shots-on-target-and-poisson/ We applied the same empirical analysis to goalscorers and we did not determine the same fit between a modelling expectation and recorded goals. See the graph below for a prediction of the …