Month: September 2021

Estimating Player xG

This blog presents two methods for estimating Player xG Method 1 – First Principles from Match xG Method 2 – Benchmarking against market information Goalscorer markets can be highly volatile Volatile markets can lead to edges if we have confidence in our numbers. To estimate value in Player Goalscorer markets we benefit from estimating the …

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BookieBashing ComboBets tracker – an updated study of p/l Sep 2021

Mar-Sep profit/loss (betting to win £200 across all bets in each game) Dec-Sep profit/loss (betting £100 on each bet) The latest results of the ComboBets tracker can be found here. Betting £100 on every bet that has come through the tracker would have resulted in -£130k. Background I won’t lie – the last time I …

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