Estimating Player xG

bashertom Public Blog

This blog presents two methods for estimating Player xG Method 1 – First Principles from Match xG Method 2 – Benchmarking against market information Goalscorer markets can be highly volatile Volatile markets can lead to edges if we have confidence in our numbers. To estimate value in Player Goalscorer markets we benefit from estimating the expected goals a Player will …

Horse Racing Tracker – The One Year Review

bashertom Public Blog

Bookiebashing horse racing tracker – 1 year results     The bookiebashing horse racing tracker rates the EV of every horse in every UK and Ireland race, every day of the year. The tracker is live and dynamic; ratings change in real time as market information changes. The tracker is based on the principle of estimating the probability of a …

BookieBashing ComboBets tracker – an updated study of p/l Sep 2021

bashertom Announcements

Mar-Sep profit/loss (betting to win £200 across all bets in each game) Dec-Sep profit/loss (betting £100 on each bet) The latest results of the ComboBets tracker can be found here. Betting £100 on every bet that has come through the tracker would have resulted in -£130k. Background I won’t lie – the last time I wrote a blog (link here) …