Public Blog

Win Both Halves: Expected vs Recorded results

https://youtu.be/rt-wm6UHGhY Bookiebashing models Win Both Halves (as well as all other goals markets) in-house using the Game Centre tool. The data here can be used to exploit edges both at bookmakers and exchanges. Win Both Halves has always been a divisive calculation at bookiebashing – because it is sometimes different to the prices available on …

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Lets discuss Anthony Gordon’s xG vs Dortmund tonight

Antony Gordon currently sits at 5.1-5.3 on the exchanges. A common misconception is that the exchange price is always the efficient price (the most accurate representation of his true probability). Some will always point to the exchange price and will argue “that’s what his price should be, I’ve been doing this for years”. So is …

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September 2023: Riding the short term storms at bookiebashing

You’re either comfortable with variance. Or you’re willing to learn how to manage your expectations by understanding it Or you’re going to quit. In September we’ve had an unusual amount of feedback about the recent performance of the trackers at bookiebashing. These ranged from “extremely poor” and “is there any point in continuing?” and “it’s …

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Golf results 2023 – You only swing when you’re winning 3

The original blog for Golf Results 2023 is here. All time golf results here. We have had feedback that some have given up with golf betting, and those following the “Weekly Golf Options” strategy are down 15% since the beginning of the year. If undertaking golf betting, think in terms of an 12-18 month window …

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Shots on Target – Historical result of every line 2020 – 2023

https://youtu.be/wNxRXJ_ojrQ We have analysed the results of  Shots on Target from 12,786 players on the xSOT tool at bookiebashing. Data is from 12th September 2020 (the launch of the tool) to 4th May 2023. The 12,786 players resulted in 8,612 shots on target.  1,579 matches are in the dataset. The tool provides a bias margin …

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