Are we just going to ignore Spain v Sweden?

bashertom Public Blog

Background On Sunday night we were presented with 41 +EV bets in the Spain v Sweden game. These were the bets: A question was then asked of us: Are you (bookiebashing) just going to ignore all the purple Spain v Sweden bets? So lets look into the purple Spain v Sweden bets: The reason 48 bets were +EV is there …

Estimating Both Teams to Score in Andorra v England

bashertom Public Blog

The Game Centre – a background The Game Centre at BookieBashing.net estimates the “Fair Odds” of all goal related markets in a football game. It can be used for benchmarking bets at the bookmaker, or trading on the exchange. It is a unique tool – our methodology is to build a correct score for each game using Match and Team …

Estimating Player xG

bashertom Public Blog

This blog presents two methods for estimating Player xG Method 1 – First Principles from Match xG Method 2 – Benchmarking against market information Goalscorer markets can be highly volatile Volatile markets can lead to edges if we have confidence in our numbers. To estimate value in Player Goalscorer markets we benefit from estimating the expected goals a Player will …

Horse Racing Tracker – The One Year Review

bashertom Public Blog

Bookiebashing horse racing tracker – 1 year results     The bookiebashing horse racing tracker rates the EV of every horse in every UK and Ireland race, every day of the year. The tracker is live and dynamic; ratings change in real time as market information changes. The tracker is based on the principle of estimating the probability of a …

BookieBashing Golf Tracker double – variance study of balance rising from £1,000 to £7,281

bashertom Public Blog

BookieBashing Golf Tracker double – Cantlay and Caldwell – variance study of probability that our balance would rise from £1,000 to £7,281 We have had a second winner from the last 2 weeks from the Golf Options tracker – with Jonathan Caldwell (150/1) beating Otageui (55/1) into 2nd. Both golfers were on the golf options page, and followed up a …

Maximising stakes on restricted accounts

bashertom Announcements, Public Blog

A strategy for betting horses on restricted bookmaker accounts How can we maximise the amount of money we are getting down on horses at restricted bookmakers? The below shows an example at Skybet. Skybet can lift limits when betting on Reqeustabets and (seemingly) -EV propositions. But what if the 1% or 0.1% restricted account just won’t budge? Example 1: The …

RBC Heritage and Austrian Open 2021

bashertom Public Blog

The US Masters 2021 (PGA Tour) takes place on the 1st April 2021. The bookiebashing golf tracker will be available to subscribers from Monday 5th April to help narrow down the value betting propositions. Key metrics at Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head, South Carolina Scrambling, Driving Accuracy and Strokes Gained: Approach the Green are all key metrics at …

US Masters 2021

bashertom Public Blog

The US Masters 2021 (PGA Tour) takes place on the 1st April 2021. The bookiebashing golf tracker will be available to subscribers from Monday 5th April to help narrow down the value betting propositions. Key metrics at Augusta National Par 5 Scoring, Birdie Averages and Strokes Gained: Approach the Green are all key metrics at Augusta National.   Based on …

Valero Texas Open

bashertom Public Blog

The Valero Texas Open (PGA Tour) takes place on the 1st April 2021. The bookiebashing golf tracker will be available to subscribers from Tuesday 30th March to help narrow down the value betting propositions. Key metrics at the TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks), San Antonio, TX Driving Distance, Recent Birdie Scoring and Bogey Avoidance are all key metrics at the …