Below we use a normal Poisson probability distribution to estimate the Total Number of Goals in five games in the Bundeslia on Saturday May 30th. To determine xG we use the following equation: xG is derived from the o2.5 goals price. That price is taken as: The Last Price Matched on the Exchange, as long …
Using a normal Poisson distribution to estimate xG in the Bundesliga Read More »
The Greens, the Putting and the Stimpmeter The US Masters takes place over the 7,745 yards of Azaleas, pimento cheese sandwiches and green jackets at the Augusta National Golf Club. It takes place on the same course every April – and so data on form and historical performance become very relevant to decision …
Benchmarking value in golf tournaments can involve a minefield of number-crunching. Not only do we have to analyse some of the largest fields in sports betting, but we also have to consider multiple objective and subjective data sets in our search for +EV value bets. Over a calendar year (one that is not affected by …
Drive for Show but Putt for Dough – is this accurate? Drive for Show but Putt for Dough: Bobby Locke (1917-1987) Was Bobby right? When we are value betting on golf it is useful to have some confidence in this statement. Some golfers simply can’t be trusted with the putter, even if they can out-drive …
Over / Under 2.5 goals in the 2019-20 added to the earlier analysis. A loss of £1,024 would have been made betting the favourite to win in the over/under 2.5 market on the EPL this season to 2nd Feb. EPL -£1025 Champ -£2014 League 1 +£1680 League 2 +£1705 Across all four leagues (over 1367 …
UK Football 2019/20 – Favourite Performance on Overs Read More »
Betting each favourite to win £200 at SP in the 2019/20 season The graph below shows the results of betting each favuorite up to 2nd February 2020. This strategy would have resulted in profit in League 1 and League 2. Betting each fav would have resulted in -£2,180 in the EPL and -£2216 in the …
Assume we want to benchmark the fair odds of a market, but there is no liquidity at the exchange. We can estimate the Fair Odds of an event in a Closed (or Complete) market by analysing a bookmakers prices, determining the markup and estimating bias. A complete betting market is a market that contains prices …
Markup-Bias Analysis: Estimating the probabilty of an event from closed markets Read More »