Toms blog

In a previous blog we looked at the application of a Poisson probability distribution to predicting Shots on Target in a game: https://www.bookiebashing.net/2022/09/08/shots-on-target-and-poisson/ We applied the same empirical analysis to goalscorers and we did not determine the same fit between a modelling expectation and recorded goals. See the graph below for a prediction of the …

Predicting player 2+ and 3+ goals Read More »

The BetBuilder Coupon Tool is an advanced tool for searching for value This tool helps us monitor the fair odds of different markets at a large number of games concurrently. You define what market(s) you want in each coupon, and you define what games you want in each coupon. The tool can monitor goals, corners …

Betbuilder coupon tool – monitor markets in games at scale Read More »

To work out the fair odds of shots on target bets we use the following methodology: We monitor the under/over lines used by multiple bookmakers in real time and take an average (identifying and addressing any outliers) We apply a margin with no under/over bias to return a 100% market We take the over line …

Shots on Target and Poisson Read More »

“performance issues are getting to the point where subscribers should be compensated for them.”   We received this feedback over the summer and I wanted to address it. Bookiebashing.net is a 24/7/365 service. We aim to provide a suite of trackers and tools that you can access at 2:45am on Christmas day morning (should you …

Bookiebashing Site Compensation Read More »

Last week Bookiebashing and the Smart Betting Club’s Weekly Golf Value service both highlighted Trey Mullinax as a value bet with the bookmaker “10bet” on the Barbasol Championship on Wednesday the 6th July. He won the event with a birdie on the last hole on Sunday the 10th July. Two days after the event completed …

10bet voiding Mullinax 175/1 and paying out at 100/1 – Have You Been Impacted? Read More »

https://youtu.be/BwShXews7s0 Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Multi-attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) is a sub discipline of mathematical science that applies advanced analytical methods to improve decision making. MADA employs techniques such as modelling, statistics, optimisation and operations research to arrive at optimal or near-optimal solutions to complex decision making problems. MADA involves the following steps: Identify the metrics …

Multi Attribute Decision Analysis in Golf Betting Read More »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHxWsx5nKFU What shall I bet on – singles or multiples? Recently we posted a “Betting Multiples video” advocating that betting  in multiples is preferable to singles (see video at the bottom of this blog). Betting multiples minimises restrictions whilst compounding value.  Which kind of multiple should we bet on? The answer can be complex and …

Singles or Lucky 15s – a historical results exercise Read More »