Selection Win Place Win LPM Place LPM Place BBP EV % (Place = LPM) EV % (Win = LPM, Place = BBP) Florian Hempel 501 126 600 50 81 167.75% 119.53% Darius Labanauskas 501 126 900 50 51 153.83% 151.36% Mensur Suljovic 151 38.5 260 15.5 26 153.23% 103.08% Martin Schindler 301 76 420 40 …
Data can be downloaded here Notes The bookiebashing horse racing tracker is a live model that estimates the value of each horse in every race at every bookmaker. We estimate the probability of the horse finishing in 1st to nth position and then compare that against the bookmakers odds. Over the 1st …
How do you use the golf tracker? Sure – we can bet on goflers at the bookmakers referenced, but are there any other applications? The bookiebashing golf tracker uses a model that estimates the value of each golfer based on the number of places offered by a bookmaker. We have monitored the p/l of the …
Blog post – different applications of the Golf Tracker Read More »
Matchbook have put up a market up for shots on target boosts. They have not added anything to their rules about these bets, although other similar markets state that a “bet is live if a player plays any part of the game” This morning Paddy Power went 5/1 on Aguero to get 3+ Shots on …
Aguero 3+ shots on target at Paddy Power/BFSB – Matchbook Market Read More »
Bets such as “Team to have the most goals in both halves and Team to have the most corners in both halves” No. on tracker in 2020 Win Loss Avg. Odds Avg EV p/l (£200 liability) ROI 358 43 314 27.39 113% £2,916.75 137% These bets are huge EV at BFSB/Paddy Power. The reason they …
Over the last month, I’ve been taking the opportunity to put “Penalty Taken” into Lucky 15s, Lucky 31s, Lucky 63s during Premiership and Champions League gamedays. I’ve had a decent amount of profit up until now. There seems to be a higher-than-average awarding of penalties recently, due to one of the following reasons: VAR rule …
Its difficult to overstate how big William Hills 7 places in the Supreme Novices Hurdle looks. Other books are 3, 4 and 5 places. Looking at the race composition we can pretty much discount 5 horses who are over 100 on the exchange. We’re left with 11 contenders, 3 ins single figures. The book is …
Newcastle to score 2+ goals and 6+ corners Q) How can we estimate the above? A) With great difficulty. It is an extremely complex problem. The probability of a team to score goals is not independent from the probability of a team to take corners. In some scenarios, more goals will count negatively towards expected …
Combining components of Requestabets – Team A Goals with Team A Corners Read More »
Last year when we calibrated the corners model with coefficients for clustering etc (see here for more info) we back-tested the model against thousands of games. We also ran it in private whilst we monitored daily markets. We continue to monitor the model on a regular basis for reality checking. The below presents 3 games …
Reality checking the BB Corners model vs Exchange: 2 x Champions League and 1 x EPL game Read More »
Working on a theory that there is value in Shots on Target due to ridiculous amounts of bias in the Overs. To do this I had a look at modelling my own Shots on Target this week based on a combination of historical data and current match AGS/FGS prices, and it initially appears to me …