We have added a Scorecast Model to the Player xG Tool. It is also available in the betbuilder for live bet tracking. The following markets can be selected: First Goalscorer Scorecast Anytime Scorer Scorecast First Goalscorer Wincast Anytime Scorer Wincast The inputs to the model include the Correct Score (as calculated by BB in …
First and Anytime Scorecast Models added to Player xG Read More »
Team Lineups have been added to the Player xG Model. Lineups will be available 40 minutes – 55 minutes before Kick Off The xG of the starting 20 outfield players will be normalised to equal the team xG (see Screenshot 1 below) A % of the team xG will be allocated to substitutes, this is …
Results data is available here. *Note the original version of this blog contained a data error. In the 16,177 recorded +EV bets, a small number of games were voided due to postponments. These bets were originally logged as winners instead of Voided due to a logic error. They have now been removed, reducing the number …
We have sourced an API for Pinnacle data and have used it to push an enhancement to the corners lines on detailed games. Traditionally we used the Spreads sites for corners data, and we recently added in a slider for you to change the Sell/Buy bias line at any range from 0% (sell) to 50% …
Enhancements to source data for corners – Pinnacle Lines Read More »
A new feature on the betbuilder allows you to track player bets on Private and Group trackers in real time. We use this function to target specific players for FGS, 2+, 3+ and DDHH days in advance, and share these bets to our group tracker to monitor the price changes. DDHH bets can be monitored …
Track First Goalscorers on Private and Group Trackers Read More »
Double Delight Hatrick Heaven is a concession at Betfred. They offer double the odds if the first goalscorer gets a second goal, and triple the odds if they get a third. Long term DDHH results are 21% ROI (to 6/12/22). Up to date results available here Anecdotally DDHH has been labelled as “diabolical” at the …
https://youtu.be/SYmhr4SaK7w Betting Unders in the World Cup Final Opposing England at English facing exchanges or bookmakers Betting on steamers Betting on secondary goal markets Football Coupons in shops Alternative outrights – e.g. Winning Confederation Player Goals (o/u in tournament, DDHH, FGS, 2+, 3+) Shots on Target Inplay Betting Arbitrage and Match Betting 1. Betting Unders …
Ten World Cup Betting Edges – debunking the Myths from Reality Read More »
https://youtu.be/t2bk-Mpcwe4 You can now share bets with your team(s) by using the bookiebashing Group Tracker. The Group Tracker is found on a tab within the bet tracker. The Betbuilder is used to send bets to the Group Tracker. To Set up a Private Group: Go to the bet tracker: https://www.bookiebashing.net/trackers/bet-tracker/ Navigate to Group Tracker 3. …
In a previous blog we looked at the application of a Poisson probability distribution to predicting Shots on Target in a game: https://www.bookiebashing.net/2022/09/08/shots-on-target-and-poisson/ We applied the same empirical analysis to goalscorers and we did not determine the same fit between a modelling expectation and recorded goals. See the graph below for a prediction of the …