Benchmarking value in golf tournaments can involve a minefield of number-crunching. Not only do we have to analyse some of the largest fields in sports betting, but we also have to consider multiple objective and subjective data sets in our search for +EV value bets. Over a calendar year (one that is not affected by …
Drive for Show but Putt for Dough – is this accurate? Drive for Show but Putt for Dough: Bobby Locke (1917-1987) Was Bobby right? When we are value betting on golf it is useful to have some confidence in this statement. Some golfers simply can’t be trusted with the putter, even if they can out-drive …
Its difficult to overstate how big William Hills 7 places in the Supreme Novices Hurdle looks. Other books are 3, 4 and 5 places. Looking at the race composition we can pretty much discount 5 horses who are over 100 on the exchange. We’re left with 11 contenders, 3 ins single figures. The book is …
Newcastle to score 2+ goals and 6+ corners Q) How can we estimate the above? A) With great difficulty. It is an extremely complex problem. The probability of a team to score goals is not independent from the probability of a team to take corners. In some scenarios, more goals will count negatively towards expected …
Combining components of Requestabets – Team A Goals with Team A Corners Read More »
Last year when we calibrated the corners model with coefficients for clustering etc (see here for more info) we back-tested the model against thousands of games. We also ran it in private whilst we monitored daily markets. We continue to monitor the model on a regular basis for reality checking. The below presents 3 games …
Reality checking the BB Corners model vs Exchange: 2 x Champions League and 1 x EPL game Read More »
Working on a theory that there is value in Shots on Target due to ridiculous amounts of bias in the Overs. To do this I had a look at modelling my own Shots on Target this week based on a combination of historical data and current match AGS/FGS prices, and it initially appears to me …
Over / Under 2.5 goals in the 2019-20 added to the earlier analysis. A loss of £1,024 would have been made betting the favourite to win in the over/under 2.5 market on the EPL this season to 2nd Feb. EPL -£1025 Champ -£2014 League 1 +£1680 League 2 +£1705 Across all four leagues (over 1367 …
UK Football 2019/20 – Favourite Performance on Overs Read More »
Betting each favourite to win £200 at SP in the 2019/20 season The graph below shows the results of betting each favuorite up to 2nd February 2020. This strategy would have resulted in profit in League 1 and League 2. Betting each fav would have resulted in -£2,180 in the EPL and -£2216 in the …
Assume we want to benchmark the fair odds of a market, but there is no liquidity at the exchange. We can estimate the Fair Odds of an event in a Closed (or Complete) market by analysing a bookmakers prices, determining the markup and estimating bias. A complete betting market is a market that contains prices …
Markup-Bias Analysis: Estimating the probabilty of an event from closed markets Read More »
The Corners Problem Corners are not independent. A corner will often lead to another corner. They come in clusters. Poisson can be a useful model, but it is most precise when events that are being counted are independent and do not come in clusters. This means that the observed chance of 0 corners is higher …