Five Figure Lucky 15 Congratulations to the anonymous bookiebasher who won five figures (£10k+) on a Lucky 15 this weekend. We love it when members get in touch to tell us about their success and their big wins, something that happens mostly in private because people don’t want the risk of being identified as Advantage …
7-a-side invite and a Shameless JustGiving Ukraine Plug Read More »
Gambling is one of mankind’s oldest activities. In fact, we’re not even the only species that enjoy testing our luck. In 2005, a Duke University study found that, for fun, monkeys prefer to take longer and more dangerous routes, even when the reward is less. “They just like to gamble,” describes the director of the …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHxWsx5nKFU What shall I bet on – singles or multiples? Recently we posted a “Betting Multiples video” advocating that betting in multiples is preferable to singles (see video at the bottom of this blog). Betting multiples minimises restrictions whilst compounding value. Which kind of multiple should we bet on? The answer can be complex and …
Singles or Lucky 15s – a historical results exercise Read More »
At bookiebashing.net we have a live golf tracker that estimates the EV of every golfer in every PGA and European Tour (now DP World Tour) event. Since 2019 we have put a selection (typically with a combined 10-15% win probability) of +EV golfers up on a “Weekly Golf Options” so that we can monitor the …
Golf in 2021 – ROI of bookiebashing golf tracker Read More »
At bookiebashing we benchmark off reliable sources. This could be the exchange, the spreads or another bookmakers lines. This allows us to find a value bet when a bookmaker is priced high in a particular market. What happens when all bookmakers seem to be priced high? One of two things: (1) the line is too …
Background On Sunday night we were presented with 41 +EV bets in the Spain v Sweden game. These were the bets: A question was then asked of us: Are you (bookiebashing) just going to ignore all the purple Spain v Sweden bets? So lets look into the purple Spain v Sweden bets: The reason 48 …
Data can be downloaded here Notes The bookiebashing horse racing tracker is a live model that estimates the value of each horse in every race at every bookmaker. We estimate the probability of the horse finishing in 1st to nth position and then compare that against the bookmakers odds. Over the 1st …
The Game Centre – a background The Game Centre at BookieBashing.net estimates the “Fair Odds” of all goal related markets in a football game. It can be used for benchmarking bets at the bookmaker, or trading on the exchange. It is a unique tool – our methodology is to build a correct score for each …
Estimating Both Teams to Score in Andorra v England Read More »
This blog presents two methods for estimating Player xG Method 1 – First Principles from Match xG Method 2 – Benchmarking against market information Goalscorer markets can be highly volatile Volatile markets can lead to edges if we have confidence in our numbers. To estimate value in Player Goalscorer markets we benefit from estimating the …
Bookiebashing horse racing tracker – 1 year results The bookiebashing horse racing tracker rates the EV of every horse in every UK and Ireland race, every day of the year. The tracker is live and dynamic; ratings change in real time as market information changes. The tracker is based on the principle of …