The PGA returns next week behind closed doors with the Charles Schwab Challenge. The bookiebashing golf tracker will be available to subscribers from Tuesday 9th June to help narrow down the value betting propositions. Bookmakers are making a big push with concessionary places. Paddy Power 10 places, Skybet 9 places, William Hill 8 places + …
Below we use a normal Poisson probability distribution to estimate the Total Number of Goals in five games in the Bundeslia on Saturday May 30th. To determine xG we use the following equation: xG is derived from the o2.5 goals price. That price is taken as: The Last Price Matched on the Exchange, as long …
Using a normal Poisson distribution to estimate xG in the Bundesliga Read More »
The Greens, the Putting and the Stimpmeter The US Masters takes place over the 7,745 yards of Azaleas, pimento cheese sandwiches and green jackets at the Augusta National Golf Club. It takes place on the same course every April – and so data on form and historical performance become very relevant to decision …
Benchmarking value in golf tournaments can involve a minefield of number-crunching. Not only do we have to analyse some of the largest fields in sports betting, but we also have to consider multiple objective and subjective data sets in our search for +EV value bets. Over a calendar year (one that is not affected by …
Drive for Show but Putt for Dough – is this accurate? Drive for Show but Putt for Dough: Bobby Locke (1917-1987) Was Bobby right? When we are value betting on golf it is useful to have some confidence in this statement. Some golfers simply can’t be trusted with the putter, even if they can out-drive …
Its difficult to overstate how big William Hills 7 places in the Supreme Novices Hurdle looks. Other books are 3, 4 and 5 places. Looking at the race composition we can pretty much discount 5 horses who are over 100 on the exchange. We’re left with 11 contenders, 3 ins single figures. The book is …
Newcastle to score 2+ goals and 6+ corners Q) How can we estimate the above? A) With great difficulty. It is an extremely complex problem. The probability of a team to score goals is not independent from the probability of a team to take corners. In some scenarios, more goals will count negatively towards expected …
Combining components of Requestabets – Team A Goals with Team A Corners Read More »
Last year when we calibrated the corners model with coefficients for clustering etc (see here for more info) we back-tested the model against thousands of games. We also ran it in private whilst we monitored daily markets. We continue to monitor the model on a regular basis for reality checking. The below presents 3 games …
Reality checking the BB Corners model vs Exchange: 2 x Champions League and 1 x EPL game Read More »
Working on a theory that there is value in Shots on Target due to ridiculous amounts of bias in the Overs. To do this I had a look at modelling my own Shots on Target this week based on a combination of historical data and current match AGS/FGS prices, and it initially appears to me …
Over / Under 2.5 goals in the 2019-20 added to the earlier analysis. A loss of £1,024 would have been made betting the favourite to win in the over/under 2.5 market on the EPL this season to 2nd Feb. EPL -£1025 Champ -£2014 League 1 +£1680 League 2 +£1705 Across all four leagues (over 1367 …
UK Football 2019/20 – Favourite Performance on Overs Read More »