1st Half Draw 2nd Half Draw Group 1 Group 2 Jon Rahm (1) Collin Morikawa (2) Patrick Reed (23) Jason Kokrak (22) Cameron Young (40) Sergio Garcia (43) Sebastian Munoz (58) Robert MacIntyre (61) Group 16 Group 15 Brooks Koepka (16) Abraham Ancer (15) Shane Lowry (28) Webb Simpson (31) Harold Varner III (35) Brian …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHxWsx5nKFU What shall I bet on – singles or multiples? Recently we posted a “Betting Multiples video” advocating that betting in multiples is preferable to singles (see video at the bottom of this blog). Betting multiples minimises restrictions whilst compounding value. Which kind of multiple should we bet on? The answer can be complex and …
Singles or Lucky 15s – a historical results exercise Read More »
The 1,000th +EV “Win both Halves” bet to be pushed to the bet tracker was recorded on the 10th February 2022 – Liverpool to win both halves against Leicester at Betfred. We estimated this bet to be 2.75/2.61. The Bookiebashing Game Centre calculates the correct score for any time period in a game. It …
Selection Win Place Win LPM Place LPM Place BBP EV % (Place = LPM) EV % (Win = LPM, Place = BBP) Florian Hempel 501 126 600 50 81 167.75% 119.53% Darius Labanauskas 501 126 900 50 51 153.83% 151.36% Mensur Suljovic 151 38.5 260 15.5 26 153.23% 103.08% Martin Schindler 301 76 420 40 …
At bookiebashing.net we have a live golf tracker that estimates the EV of every golfer in every PGA and European Tour (now DP World Tour) event. Since 2019 we have put a selection (typically with a combined 10-15% win probability) of +EV golfers up on a “Weekly Golf Options” so that we can monitor the …
Golf in 2021 – ROI of bookiebashing golf tracker Read More »
At bookiebashing we benchmark off reliable sources. This could be the exchange, the spreads or another bookmakers lines. This allows us to find a value bet when a bookmaker is priced high in a particular market. What happens when all bookmakers seem to be priced high? One of two things: (1) the line is too …
Background On Sunday night we were presented with 41 +EV bets in the Spain v Sweden game. These were the bets: A question was then asked of us: Are you (bookiebashing) just going to ignore all the purple Spain v Sweden bets? So lets look into the purple Spain v Sweden bets: The reason 48 …
Data can be downloaded here Notes The bookiebashing horse racing tracker is a live model that estimates the value of each horse in every race at every bookmaker. We estimate the probability of the horse finishing in 1st to nth position and then compare that against the bookmakers odds. Over the 1st …
The Game Centre – a background The Game Centre at BookieBashing.net estimates the “Fair Odds” of all goal related markets in a football game. It can be used for benchmarking bets at the bookmaker, or trading on the exchange. It is a unique tool – our methodology is to build a correct score for each …
Estimating Both Teams to Score in Andorra v England Read More »
This blog presents two methods for estimating Player xG Method 1 – First Principles from Match xG Method 2 – Benchmarking against market information Goalscorer markets can be highly volatile Volatile markets can lead to edges if we have confidence in our numbers. To estimate value in Player Goalscorer markets we benefit from estimating the …