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Reality checking the BB Corners model vs Exchange: 2 x Champions League and 1 x EPL game

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Last year when we calibrated the corners model with coefficients for clustering etc (see here for more info) we back-tested the model against thousands of games. We also ran it in private whilst we monitored daily markets. We continue to monitor the model on a regular basis for reality checking. The below presents 3 games …

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Markup-Bias Analysis: Estimating the probabilty of an event from closed markets

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Assume we want to benchmark the fair odds of a market, but there is no liquidity at the exchange. We can estimate the Fair Odds of an event in a Closed (or Complete) market by analysing a bookmakers prices, determining the markup and estimating bias. A complete betting market is a market that contains prices …

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Three methods for estimating the probability of over x goals in y games

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  Below we present three methods for estimating over x goals in y games: Method A – using the exchange Daily Goals Market Method B – using over 0.5 to over 7.5 exchange data for each game Method C – using a discrete probability distribution This is followed by a case study using real data …

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4 methods for extracting value from horse races with additional paid places

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Value betting Dutching the race Laying the win only and targeting any place Laying the win and the place and targeting the EP   It is possible to make long term profit by betting on horse races where the terms are in our favour. The return can average 20% of overall stake placed on a …

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