At bookiebashing.net we have a live golf tracker that estimates the EV of every golfer in every PGA and European Tour (now DP World Tour) event. Since 2019 we have put a selection (typically with a combined 10-15% win probability) of +EV golfers up on a “Weekly Golf Options” so that we can monitor the …
Golf in 2021 – ROI of bookiebashing golf tracker Read More »
At bookiebashing we benchmark off reliable sources. This could be the exchange, the spreads or another bookmakers lines. This allows us to find a value bet when a bookmaker is priced high in a particular market. What happens when all bookmakers seem to be priced high? One of two things: (1) the line is too …
Background On Sunday night we were presented with 41 +EV bets in the Spain v Sweden game. These were the bets: A question was then asked of us: Are you (bookiebashing) just going to ignore all the purple Spain v Sweden bets? So lets look into the purple Spain v Sweden bets: The reason 48 …
Data can be downloaded here Notes The bookiebashing horse racing tracker is a live model that estimates the value of each horse in every race at every bookmaker. We estimate the probability of the horse finishing in 1st to nth position and then compare that against the bookmakers odds. Over the 1st …
The Game Centre – a background The Game Centre at BookieBashing.net estimates the “Fair Odds” of all goal related markets in a football game. It can be used for benchmarking bets at the bookmaker, or trading on the exchange. It is a unique tool – our methodology is to build a correct score for each …
Estimating Both Teams to Score in Andorra v England Read More »
This blog presents two methods for estimating Player xG Method 1 – First Principles from Match xG Method 2 – Benchmarking against market information Goalscorer markets can be highly volatile Volatile markets can lead to edges if we have confidence in our numbers. To estimate value in Player Goalscorer markets we benefit from estimating the …
Bookiebashing horse racing tracker – 1 year results The bookiebashing horse racing tracker rates the EV of every horse in every UK and Ireland race, every day of the year. The tracker is live and dynamic; ratings change in real time as market information changes. The tracker is based on the principle of …
Mar-Sep profit/loss (betting to win £200 across all bets in each game) Dec-Sep profit/loss (betting £100 on each bet) The latest results of the ComboBets tracker can be found here. Betting £100 on every bet that has come through the tracker would have resulted in -£130k. Background I won’t lie – the last time I …
BookieBashing ComboBets tracker – an updated study of p/l Sep 2021 Read More »
BookieBashing Golf Tracker double – Cantlay and Caldwell – variance study of probability that our balance would rise from £1,000 to £7,281 We have had a second winner from the last 2 weeks from the Golf Options tracker – with Jonathan Caldwell (150/1) beating Otageui (55/1) into 2nd. Both golfers were on the golf options …
The US Open 2021 (PGA Tour) takes place on the 17th June 2021. The bookiebashing golf tracker will be available to subscribers from Tuesday 15th June to help narrow down the value betting propositions. Key metrics at Torrey Pines, San Diego, California Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation are all …